I鈥檓 not surprised that financial markets were the first to call Iran鈥檚 retaliation 鈥渄e-escalatory鈥 (Bloomberg) 鈥 oil fell, equities and futures rose as ballistic missiles targeted the al Udeid airbase in Qatar. It鈥檚 remarkable how markets now decode foreign policy more astutely than the press briefings meant to explain it. Within minutes, risk assets began recovering, pricing in not the beginning of a regional war, but a carefully orchestrated endgame.
But I鈥檓 still trying to make sense of how the war fizzled out so suddenly.
Because if Iran really telegraphed the move perfectly enough to get a public 鈥渢hank you鈥 from Donald Trump himself鈥攅specially if POTUS also tipped the ayatollahs off before dropping Midnight Hammer, helping save lives and uranium鈥攖hen Netanyahu would not be a happy man. Either that, or Israel too is reeling from Iran鈥檚 shocking response and isn鈥檛 sure about the opportunity cost of pushing for regime change at this point.
Whatever the case, he鈥檒l have to work harder to sell 鈥渧ictory鈥 to his people than Khamenei. Even after successfully engineering genocide in Gaza, destroying Hamas, gutting Hezbollah, ending the Assad dynasty rule in Syria, isolating and then bombing and pulverising Iran, even finally getting America to 鈥渙bliterate鈥 its nuclear facilities, he knows he still needs to feed more blood and war to the extremist coalition that鈥檒l keep him in office till the next election.
He鈥檚 done so much for their cause, but he didn鈥檛 come back from Iran with the head of the mullah regime. Instead, memories of the failure of the Iron Dome鈥攁nd Gaza-like images from Tel Aviv and Haifa鈥攚ill linger. Also, who鈥檒l answer for the 400kg of missing Iranian uranium?
But all that鈥檚 true only if Trump can be trusted this time. After all, his penchant for deception is now at the heart of the most important policy calculus of the most powerful country in the world. In just the last two weeks, he鈥檚 twice boasted about lying to fool Tehran. First, he admitted that direct talks were a ruse鈥攁 way to 鈥減in down鈥 Iran鈥檚 leadership before giving Israel the green light. The same was true for his two-week window, when America directly bombed Iran. Two is a trend鈥攁nd this trend of talks-betrayal-war-spin shows duplicity as doctrine.
Besides, he mulled regime change just a day before thanking Iran for its restraint, not long after his secretary of state and VP went to great lengths to stress that the US only targeted nuclear facilities, not the leadership. So who鈥檚 to know if Trump really meant it when he ordered Israel to 鈥淏RING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!鈥 or if this is the prelude to another video showing Netanyahu smirking about how they once again tricked the Iranian leadership into lowering its guard鈥攋ust before going in for the kill.
People close to the region are in no doubt. Author, journalist and editor of the Palestine Chronicle, Ramzy Baroud, calls Trump鈥檚 latest burst of anger at Israel a 鈥渕anufactured farce鈥.
鈥淲hat we are witnessing is a staged political performance鈥攁 carefully orchestrated spat between two partners playing both sides of a dangerous game,鈥 he wrote in his column.
鈥淚n truth, this was always a joint US-Israeli war鈥攐ne planned, executed, and justified under the pretext of defending Western interests while laying the groundwork for deeper intervention and potential invasion.鈥
Nobody who knows this business really doubts that the Israelis and Americans have been working to take out Iran鈥檚 theocratic regime ever since Bashar al-Assad was forced to flee Damascus on the early morning of 8 December 2024. And almost all of them are convinced that the plan had to be shelved鈥攐r at least paused鈥攂ecause of Iran鈥檚 shocking success in hitting Israeli targets, repeatedly and with precision.
Even after Israel鈥檚 brilliant campaign successes鈥攅specially the early wave that took out Iran鈥檚 entire military high command and top scientists鈥攁nd the fact that four militaries from three countries and two seas attempted to intercept Iran鈥檚 ballistic missiles, Iran still scored higher in terms of beating expectations, even though much more of it lies in ruins than Israel.
It has also shattered the myth of the IDF鈥檚 invincibility. Now everybody knows that even a sanctioned, cornered, poor and badly hit country can easily target Israel鈥檚 vulnerabilities鈥攖he biggest being its reliance on a much bigger power for something as basic as its own security. Even the Iron Dome works only when American taxpayers subsidise its interceptors.
So far, the choreography of this de-escalation has left a lot of people breathing easier. Trump doesn鈥檛 know what more he needs to do to win the Nobel peace prize. The Iranians honoured their reputation, fighting back with dignity and pride even against the most overwhelming of odds, always preferring death to disgrace. The ayatollahs survived the most direct lunge at their jugular. The markets are calm and war risk premiums are fading.
But the real mood in Tel Aviv鈥攅ven as it publicly celebrates victory over evil鈥攚ill only become clear once Bibi鈥檚 radical cabinet delivers its own verdict on the restraint Trump has apparently forced on it. They have elections in October next year. And if, by then, the same mullahs that bombed their cities are still entrenched in power鈥攁nd also able to resume their nuclear programme鈥攖hen they鈥檒l want Netanyahu to deliver yet more.
And that, more than Trump鈥檚 peace tweets or f-bombs or Tehran鈥檚 self-congratulatory broadcasts, will determine whether this ceasefire holds.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025