Waiting for the Bridge to Blow – Again

By David Kirichenko

Waiting for the Bridge to Blow – Again

It is now the fourth year of Russia’s so-called special military operation. But now, it’s Kyiv that is carrying out special operations against Moscow, week after week.

On June 1, Ukraine smuggled containers into Russia and launched remotely controlled drones that struck Russian long-range bombers, causing an estimated $7 billion in damage and weakening Moscow’s ability to bomb Ukrainian cities. The campaign was named Operation Spiderweb. Soon after, Ukraine attacked Russia’s Kerch bridge in occupied-Crimea with underwater explosives.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said the operation targeting the Kerch Bridge was planned over several months and used the equivalent of more than a metric ton of TNT. The SBU published video footage of the blast, likely signaling that they also had access to CCTV cameras on the bridge. “The SBU conducted a new unique special operation and struck the Crimean Bridge for the third time – this time underwater!” wrote the intelligence services on their Telegram channel.

The Ukrainian attacks overshadowed the news that Russia had attacked Ukraine that same day with a record 472 Shaded attack drones, breaking the record from the previous week by a hundred.

These asymmetrical war efforts from Kyiv are a necessity as Ukraine races to protect itself and take out the archers, as it lacks air defense to destroy the arrows. These operations are part of the wider strategy to undermine Russia’s ability to wage war against Ukraine. Without air defense support from the West, Russia relentlessly bombed Ukrainian cities. As a result, Ukraine took covert action to weaken Moscow’s abilities to go on the offensive.

Vasyl Malyuk, the head of the SBU said the Kerch bridge serves “as a logistical artery” to supply Moscow’s invading army in Ukraine. The bridge throughout the full-scale invasion has been an important source for Russian logistics. Trains crossing the bridge reportedly carry weapons, vehicles, and fuel. Afterall, Crimea was one of the main launching points for Russia’s attack in February 2022. Even before 2022, Ukraine’s defense intelligence (HUR) saw the peninsula as a threat and was already targeting Russian military assets there.

It’s been top of mind for Ukrainian officials to go after Vladimir Putin’s crown jewel, reflecting his imperial ambitions following the 2014 annexation. This was the third attack by Kyiv against the bridge. Russia repeatedly repaired the Crimean Bridge after Ukrainian attacks in 2022 and 2023, which included the use of sea drones.

The first attack on the Kerch Bridge occurred on Oct. 8, 2022, just one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 70th birthday. Kyiv had a truck packed with explosives detonated while crossing the bridge, igniting a massive fireball that engulfed a fuel train traveling nearby and caused extensive damage to several spans of the bridge. Following the damage, Moscow was only able to fully reopen the bridge in May 2023.

Then in July 2023, Ukraine’s SBU used a self-developed “Sea Baby” sea drone to strike the Kerch Bridge, delivering 850 kilograms of explosives and causing significant damage to mainly the roads. The railway line had not been damaged, limiting the impact the attack had on Russian logistics.

However, due to Ukrainian attacks, the Russians were forced to look for other supply routes, and much of the strategic importance of eliminating the bridge has been gradually reduced.

Russia has to resort to ferrying more of its supplies for its army in Ukraine’s south, slowing its operations. A former senior British army explosives expert stated that it was a “masterpiece of clandestine sabotage.” Recently, a coordinated Ukrainian drone strike targeted a Russian military train near Molochansk, using 14 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Five drones evaded air defenses and struck their targets, forcing the train to halt and uncouple 19 railcars. A follow-up strike destroyed four tank cars and killed two soldiers escorting the convoy.

Jon Sweet, a former US Army Intelligence Officer said: “From Crimea, Russia can exert influence throughout the entirety of the Black Sea region. Retention of the peninsula, therefore, is essential. The Kerch Strait Bridge is the logistical lifeline between Russian forces occupying and defending Crimea and the Russia mainland.”

Sweet added: “Daily rail and vehicular traffic crossing the bridge sustain the force. If destroyed, Crimea would be cut off – in essence, creating a siege warfare like scenario.”

Moscow now relies more heavily on rail lines running through occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. Moscow now relies more on rail lines through occupied eastern Ukraine, including the new Tavrida-2 railway connecting Rostov-on-Don to southern Ukraine and occupied-Crimea.

Moscow has significantly improved its defenses with underwater barriers and advanced air defense systems to protect the structure from Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian Navy Commander Oleksiy Neizhpapa noted that Russia built a multi-layered defense system, making it challenging for sea drones to get closer to the bridge.

Russia also added a second line of boom barriers made up of 21 barges and installed piers and metal fencing around the bridge’s foundation to protect it from surface and underwater drone attacks. Russian media also reported that fighter jets, divers, and even trained dolphins are involved in guarding the bridge from threats above and below the water.

Serhii Kuzan, chair of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center and former adviser to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said: “Russia is using all available methods to safeguard the Crimean Bridge from destruction. This illegally constructed structure in temporarily occupied Crimea is critically important to Vladimir Putin and Russian logistics.”

Previously, Ukraine’s sea drones successfully struck the bridge, but improved Russian defenses forced adaptation. By 2025, these sea drones evolved into drone carriers, launching first-person view (FPV) drones from the water to extend their reach and effectiveness.

The sea drone offensive forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to retreat from occupied Crimea, effectively creating a blockade. The fleet is now sheltering in the port of Novorossiysk. Ukraine has continued to learn how to more effectively deploy the sea drones in battle. However, since the fleet had to retreat to Novorossiysk, Ukraine is enacting a blockade with its sea drones, limiting the need to strike against the ports in occupied-Crimea.

“The fleet is fully blocked. And that thing that Russians previously joked about, that Ukraine has no fleet – at least only a few boats – now they are faced with the same thing,” said HUR chief Kyrylo Budanov.

The recent bombing operation across Russia may force Russian officials to redeploy air defenses across a wider area and consider using mobile units to respond faster to future drone strikes. Russia also recently pulled its air defenses from the far east and left decoys in its place.

Ukraine has been developing underwater drones since 2023, including the Toloka TLK-150 – a compact uncrewed vehicle that operates near the surface. However, It was rumored that the recent attack on the Crimean Bridge was carried out using Ukraine’s underwater drone Marichka, which is a six-meter-long, multi-purpose strike drone that can travel up to 1000 kilometers.

Russian military bloggers believe a Ukrainian sea drone carried out the attack. In any case, Kyiv’s attack will provide valuable data on Russia’s defenses and help it adapt for future strikes on the bridge.

Now, the final piece to Ukraine’s puzzle may be the Taurus missiles, with previous chatter around that Kyiv could soon receive them from Germany. These long-range, bunker-busting cruise missiles are designed to penetrate hardened targets, making them ideal for striking reinforced infrastructure like the Kerch Bridge. Their precision and destructive power could allow Ukraine to deliver heavy enough damage to disable the bridge for a long time.

But, on June 12, Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it will not supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus cruise missiles, despite earlier suggestions that the transfer remained possible. However, in early July, Chancellor Friedrich Merz clarified that the option remains on the table.

Russia understands this and is already panicking after Operation Spiderweb. Moscow is ramping up security at military bases in occupied-Crimea, where Ukrainian drones have relentlessly targeted air defenses in recent months. The Crimean partisan group “Atesh” reported that because Air defense patrols have increased, “soldiers complain about round-the-clock duty and fatigue” since they have to do more work.

If Ukraine receives the Taurus missiles, we can expect a coordinated offensive: drone swarms, sea drone carriers launching FPV drones inland to hit air defenses, long-range drone and missile strikes to destroy the defining symbol of Putin’s empire – the Kerch Bridge.

Samuel Bendett, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security said: “Ukraine is likely to take whatever course it will deem necessary when attacking the bridge with UAVs and maritime drones – whatever will be more effective and will likely deliver results.”

Sweet highlighted the impact that the symbolism and propaganda value would have from the “image of the destroyed bridge – the last physical connection to Russia having been severed.”

While disabling the bridge may no longer have the same battlefield impact as it once did, it would still deliver a powerful symbolic victory for Kyiv, signaling that Putin is losing control over his war against the Ukrainian people.

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