By Adam Cailler
Russia, feeling increasingly confident, has escalated its military offensives on two fronts in Ukraine , dispersing Kyiv’s valuable reserve troops and posing a threat to extend the conflict into a new Ukrainian region as both sides vie for an upper hand before the autumn fighting season draws to a close. Moscow’s goal is to maximise its territorial gains before seriously contemplating a comprehensive ceasefire, according to analysts and military commanders. Ukraine, on the other hand, aims to hinder the Russian advance for as long as possible while inflicting heavy casualties. Kremlin forces are gradually making headway in the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk. Securing this area would represent a significant battlefield triumph for them and bring them a step closer to seizing the entire Donetsk region. The combat there has also introduced warfare to the border of the neighbouring Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time. In a bid to prevent Moscow from reinforcing these positions in the east, Ukrainian forces are attempting to engage some of Russia’s finest and most battle-hardened troops hundreds of kilometres away, in the northeast Sumy region. “The best-case scenario for Ukraine,” stated Russian-British military historian Sergey Radchenko, “is that they’re able to stall or stop the Russian advance” in the Ukrainian industrial heartland known as Donbas, which encompasses the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Ukraine could then “use that as the basis for a ceasefire agreement. “There’s a better chance for Russia to come to some kind of terms with Ukraine” in the autumn when the Russians “see the extent of their offensive,” Radchenko added. As the battles continue, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is waiting to see if the Trump administration will back harsher sanctions against Russia and support a European proposal to set up a “reassurance force” to deter Moscow. A blow came with the U.S. decision to stop certain weapons shipments due to worries over the U.S.’s own dwindling stockpiles. In the Sumy region, Ukrainian forces are under constant attack from aerial glide bombs, drones and relentless onslaughts by small groups of Russian infantrymen. They withstand the attacks to stop Russian forces from being relocated to other battlefields in the eastern Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces stepped up their own assaults in Sumy in April and even launched a minor offensive into Russia’s neighbouring Kursk region to prevent up to 60,000 battle-hardened Russian forces from being moved to reinforce positions in the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, Ukraine’s top army commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said last week. If those troops had been relocated, they could have accelerated the pace of Russian attacks across the front line and spread Ukrainian forces thin. The strategy was not without its critics. Commanders who were instructed to carry it out complained that it led to unnecessary loss of life. Russian forces have advanced up to 7 kilometres into the northern Sumy region from various directions along the border. Ukrainian forces are resolute in their efforts to contain them there, aiming to prevent the release of Russian forces to engage in the east. Thus far, they’ve been successful, trapping as many as 10,000 Russian soldiers in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region alone, where Ukraine retains a minor presence after being largely ousted by Russian and North Korean troops earlier this year. The most significant battle of the war is currently unfolding in Donetsk, with Russia gradually progressing towards its declared objective of seizing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Unable to directly confront the strategically crucial logistical hub of Pokrovsk, Russian forces are attempting to surround the city, a tactic that necessitates encroaching on the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Expanding the war to a sixth Ukrainian region would be damaging for Ukrainian morale and provide Russia with additional bargaining power in negotiations if its forces manage to establish a foothold there. Sabotage groups have infiltrated the border, only to be neutralised by Ukrainian forces. However, over time, commanders fear that Russia will progress as Ukraine continues to struggle with severe shortages. The scarcity of soldiers and supplies across the 1,200-kilometre (745-mile) front line means that Ukrainian forces must focus on maintaining their positions and preserving resources rather than advancing, according to Oleksii Makhrinskyi, deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion. Commanders have painted a picture of fierce battles under drone-filled skies, making the rotation of forces a perilous task. Ukrainian troops are holding their positions for weeks on end, depending on drones for supply deliveries. Andrii Nazerenko, a commander of the 72nd Brigade, a drone unit in eastern Ukraine, suggested that Russia’s objective “is just to enter Dnipropetrovsk region, to have a good position politically if the presidents negotiate peace,” hinting at potential discussions between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin . “They’re really close to getting what they want,” he warned. For the latest breaking news and stories from across the globe from the Daily Star, sign up for our newsletters .