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US Stock Market indexes — S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq — on Monday will look to maintain the rally as investors will be keeping a close eye on the Trump tariff deadline. If it passes without an increase in trade tensions, it could cheer the markets. Investors have shifted from panicking about tariffs to relief buying, recently lifting the U.S. stock market back to record highs, with corporate earnings and the U.S. economy holding up better than many had expected through a period of dramatic policy change. S&P 500 has risen about 26 per cent from April 8, when stocks bottomed following President Donald Trump’s draconian April 2 tariff announcement. But much of the rally has been driven by retail market participants and corporate share buybacks, even as institutional investors have been more reticent.US Stock Market CBOE Vix PredictorThe fear gauge of the US Stock Market — the Cboe Vix volatility index currently stands at 16.38. This shows a stable situation with a possibility of a bullish run.S&P 500 Trade PredictionAfter a roller-coaster first half, the S&P 500 is entering a historically strong period. Over the past 20 years, July has been the strongest month for the benchmark index with an average return of 2.5 per cent, according to a Reuters analysis of LSEG data. Investors will also be keeping an eye on economic data – especially inflation numbers – and second quarter results in coming weeks for clues to the health of the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve interest rate outlook.Live EventsThis has definitely been a junkier rally, a more speculative rally, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. In the last week or so, it’s been driven a lot more, I think, by retail than it has been by institutions. Institutional positioning is really just average, she said.While many factors are keeping investors cautious, including worries about U.S. economic growth and lofty stock market valuations, getting past the tariff deadline without a major escalation in tensions would be one less thing to worry about in the near term, analysts said.Despite the S&P 500 making new highs, equity positioning is far below February levels as investors remain underweight stocks, according to Deutsche Bank estimates.Investors’ cautious approach to boosting equity exposure now is reminiscent of their behavior immediately after the pandemic market drop of March 2020, when allocations to stocks recovered more slowly than major market indexes, Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte, said.FAQsQ1. What are key US stock market indexes?A1. Key US stock market indexes are S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.Q2. Where does Cboe Vix volatility index current stand?A2. Cboe Vix volatility index currently stands at 16.38.(You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)
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