Reading Time: 3 minutes
July marks the start of the second half of 2025 and, usually, peak winter weather 鈥 although as I鈥檝e written in previous weeks the actual peak of winter鈥檚 cold shifts around in NZ each year based on where high pressure is parked.
Now that half of this year is, incredibly, already done and dusted it鈥檚 time to see the second half in with some stats by reviewing the state of the nation鈥檚 recent weather.
SOIL MOISTURE
Most regions are basically bang on where they should be for this time of year. Soil moisture levels are, generally speaking, about average with a +/- 10mm difference compared to normal.
Driest is Hawke鈥檚 Bay, in particular an area from Napier to Hastings and surrounds. This one area is currently 50mm below normal rainfall 鈥 and is the only part of NZ on the soil moisture map showing red shading.
This dry zone also extends westwards through parts of Central Hawke鈥檚 Bay and then over into Manawat奴, where there is a 10-30mm deficit (not much but noticeable).
Wettest is Canterbury to Marlborough along the South Island鈥檚 east, which is 20-40mm wetter than usual right now. In fact I wouldn鈥檛 be surprised if some were much wetter than that locally, with NIWA鈥檚 monitoring stations not located under some of Canterbury鈥檚 most intense rainfall in recent months.
SUNSHINE HOURS
It has been a brighter than usual start to winter, at least so far, for many regions across New Zealand. Those in the highest category (125%+ of sunshine hours compared to normal) include Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Gisborne, Central Plateau, Manawat奴, Whanganui, the northern half of the West Coast, large parts of Southland (mostly western) and, most incredibly, Fiordland 鈥 one of the wettest places on earth.
But it鈥檚 been much gloomier than usual in these regions: Canterbury (no surprises!), coastal Otago, and around Wellington/southern Wairarapa. These areas have had less than 85% of the usual sunshine hours you鈥檇 be getting at the start of winter.
TEMPERATURES
In recent weeks the top of NZ has been warmer than average, southern/eastern NZ colder than usual. In the warmer camp (by over 1.2degC) is the Far North, Auckland, East Cape, Gisborne (but two southern locations, South Westland and Fiordland, also stand out as milder).
At the other extreme Southland, Otago, the Mackenzie basin, North Canterbury, inland Marlborough, K膩piti Coast, eastern coastal Manawat奴 and National Park are all slightly cooler at 0.5degC to 1.2degC below normal.
Mackenzie is most extreme with temperatures averaging over 2degC below normal. Most other places are closer to average.
START OF JULY
As we kick off July, we do expect some low pressure in the Tasman Sea to cross northern New Zealand with some wind and rain, followed by another cold southerly, but we see even more high pressure and westerly driven weather also in the mix.