RIGHT OF REPLY
Emameh Gabriel
The discourse regarding the call for a Government-funded National Carrier was reignited by Lawnson Omokhodion’s THISDAY column of 25th June 2025, “How Festus Keyamo Stumbled at a Critical Aviation Junction. Whilst noble in its intent to restore Nigeria’s aviation pride, the article fundamentally misunderstands the current global aviation economics and Nigeria’s own fiscal realities.
In his piece, Omokhodion took issue with the Honourable Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo’s alleged outright rejection of a state backed national carrier. He made some cases, pointing to models across the world where government involvement has driven growth in aviation, created jobs and boosted tourism.
Let us dissect this carefully. The truth is more complex and less comforting. Beneath the stirring rhetoric of national pride lurk several dangerous misconceptions: that state ownership guarantees operational efficiency, that Nigeria’s current fiscal reality could sustain such an ambitious venture, and that the global aviation landscape has not fundamentally transformed in ways that make traditional flag carriers increasingly obsolete. These assumptions require rigorous examination, particularly when Nigeria’s recent history with state owned enterprises offers such sobering lessons.
The nostalgia for a national carrier invariably invokes the ghost of Nigeria Airways, once the undisputed pride of African aviation. During its 1980s heyday, the airline boasted 32 aircraft serving routes across four continents. By the time of its liquidation in 2003, it had been reduced to just two operational planes while drowning under $60 million of debt, a staggering decline that reveals more than mere financial mismanagement. The rot was systemic and multidimensional. Routes were determined by political patronage rather than profitability. Maintenance contracts went to connected insiders rather than qualified technical partners. Salaries went unpaid for months while management indulged in brazen graft. The suggestion that “restructuring” could have saved Nigeria Airways ignores the more fundamental truth about Nigeria’s governance ecosystem: state-owned enterprises inevitably become patronage networks first and functional businesses second.
This pattern has repeated itself across sectors, from the chronically dysfunctional NEPA (now PHCN) to the corruption plagued NNPC. The recent Nigeria Air debacle- that embarrassing episode featuring a hastily repainted Ethiopian Airlines plane with no actual operating licence, and allegations of $8.8 million in mismanaged funds – should have served as the final indictment of this failed model. Yet remarkably, some commentators continue advocating for Nigeria to double down on this approach. As aviation analyst Sindy Foster bluntly observed, “Nigeria doesn’t have a national carrier problem, it has a policy environment problem. Fix the ecosystem first.” This what the Minister is doing.
The global aviation landscape has undergone seismic shifts that render the traditional state carrier model increasingly anachronistic. According to 2025 data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), a staggering 78% of global airline capacity now operates under private ownership. This is not ideological happenstance but pragmatic adaptation to industry realities. With profit margins averaging just 3.2% in the post-pandemic era, the capital-intensive airline business has become brutally hostile to state ownership models. Across Europe, 32 national carriers have been fully or partially privatised since 1991, including former flag carriers like British Airways (1987), Lufthansa (1997), and Air France (2004). Even in Africa, where state involvement remains more common, the most successful operators like Ethiopian Airlines function as quasi-private entities with considerable operational autonomy, while basket cases like South African Airways required a R30 billion bailout before its partial privatisation in 2021.
The case of Air India proves particularly instructive. Long held up as a symbol of post-colonial national pride, the airline accumulated $12 billion in debt under state ownership before being returned to its original founders, Tata Group, in 2022. This transition came only after decades of chronic inefficiency, including the absurdity of employing 210 staff per aircraft when the industry average was 150. The lesson couldn’t be clearer: in an industry where efficiency and flexibility determine survival, state ownership typically becomes an albatross rather than an advantage.
Nigeria’s current fiscal reality makes the National Carrier proposition even more untenable. With debt-servicing consuming 92% of government revenue, there is simply no room for vanity projects. The estimated $1 billion startup cost required to launch a viable national carrier represents resources that could be far better deployed addressing the country’s actual aviation priorities. That same capital could modernise every major airport in the country with CAT III instrument landing systems, immediately reducing the 40% of flights currently cancelled due to poor weather visibility. It could establish world-class aviation training academies to address Nigeria’s critical shortage of pilots and aircraft engineers. Most importantly, it could provide targeted subsidies and tax incentives to help existing private operators like Air Peace expand their fleets and route networks, an approach that has already proven successful when Air Peace’s entry onto the Lagos-London route forced foreign carriers to slash fares by 60% overnight.
The jobs argument frequently deployed by national carrier advocates similarly collapses under scrutiny. While Ethiopia Airlines employs an impressive 25,000 staff, this came at the cost of $10 billion in state support over two decades, a staggering $400,000 subsidy per job created. For Nigeria, currently battling 33.3% unemployment and a worsening cost of living crisis, this represents an indefensible misallocation of scarce resources. The private sector has demonstrated far better job creation potential, with Air Peace alone employing 2,300 Nigerians despite operating in, what CEO Allen Onyema describes as “an environment of 37 different levies and chronic foreign exchange shortages.”
Nigeria already possesses homegrown models that point toward a more sustainable aviation future. Akwa Ibom State’s Ibom Air has demonstrated how limited State involvement can succeed when combined with private-sector operational discipline. The airline’s unusual ownership structure, 94% state owned yet run by aviation professionals insulated from political interference—has allowed it to maintain impeccable service standards while expanding its route network. Similarly, Air Peace’s remarkable growth despite Nigeria’s business environment proves that indigenous carriers can compete internationally when given half a chance. The airline’s strategic decision to deploy its Boeing 777s on the Lagos-London and most recently Lagos-Abuja-Heathrow routes didn’t just provide Nigerians with more options; it exposed the predatory pricing long practiced by foreign carriers on the route, with fares immediately dropping from $2,500 roundtrip to $900. This market-driven achievement did more for Nigerian travellers in three months than decades of national carrier nostalgia.
Minister Keyamo’s emphasis on public-private partnerships rather than full state ownership reflects this reality. His May 2025 clarification that the government has not abandoned the National Carrier concept but insists on private sector leadership represents the only viable path forward. The proposed concession of Lagos and Abuja airports, provides another template for how strategic state involvement can catalyse private investment without recreating the failures of full state ownership.
The real bottlenecks crippling Nigerian aviation have little to do with the absence of a flag carrier. As Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury noted during his 2024 visit to Abuja, “Africa’s aviation challenge isn’t airlines, it’s runways, control towers and maintenance bays.” Nigeria’s priorities should reflect this reality. Accelerating the airport concession process to bring in world class operators remains urgent. Completing the long delved Lagos MRO facility would finally allow Nigerian airlines to conduct heavy maintenance locally rather than spending $500 million annually overseas.
The emotional appeal of a national carrier, that iconic green-and-white liveried plane symbolising Nigeria’s arrival on the global stage, is understandable. But national pride cannot compensate for operational realities. Justice Lewis-Allagoa’s 2024 ruling against the Nigeria Air project wasn’t mere legal technicality; it was a judicial repudiation of the same flawed thinking that doomed Nigeria Airways. The court’s finding of procedural irregularities and wrongful exclusion of domestic airlines in the bidding process perfectly encapsulated why state-led aviation projects fail in Nigeria’s governance environment. This is one of the issues Lawson Omokhodion is not aware of.
Minister Keyamo’s apparent “stumble” at this aviation junction is in fact the first signs of progress. By resisting the siren call of statist solutions and focusing instead on enabling private operators, fixing broken infrastructure, and creating smarter policies, he offers Nigeria its first realistic chance at aviation success in decades. The choice is not between national pride and global relevance, but between clinging to nostalgic symbols and building real capacity. The world has moved on from the era of state flag carriers. For Nigeria’s aviation sector to truly take flight, it must do the same.
What we need as a country is the courage to break from outdated models. Designating viable private airlines through PPP as Nigeria’s de facto flag carrier through targeted route subsidies would yield immediate benefits without creating another state liability. Expanding the successful Ibom Air hybrid model to other regions could create a network of efficient, professionally managed airlines. Most importantly, fixing the policy environment, streamlining regulations and fixing infrastructure is all Nigeria needs now.
Nigeria’s aviation future won’t be found in resurrecting the ghosts of Nigeria Airways, but in embracing the dynamism of its private sector. The national carrier debate has always been about more than airplanes, it reflects Nigeria’s struggle to reconcile ambition with capability, symbolism with substance. Festus Keyamo’s approach may lack the emotional resonance of a grand flag carrier announcement, but it offers something far more valuable: a realistic path to building an aviation sector that serves Nigerians rather than political egos. For now, that is what truly matters.
Emameh Gabriel is the Special Assistance on Media and Research to the Honourable Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development.