When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, he was betting against the West. The West 鈥 understood as Europe and the United States 鈥 would not have the mettle to save Ukraine, he surely surmised. Neither united nor effective, it had a long record of failure in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Russia鈥檚 victory would prove that the West鈥檚 golden age was over, freeing Russia to partner with China and other rising countries, asserting itself anew on the world stage.
Mr. Putin鈥檚 bet has not paid off. As the war drags on and on, the Kremlin has taken a two-pronged approach to the West. Domestically, the Kremlin has demonized it, encouraging Russians to rally around Mr. Putin in a civilizational battle. Abroad, Russia has sought to divide the West, peeling away the doubters and the dissenters from the pro-Ukraine coalition. In this project, Donald Trump鈥檚 election in November was supposed to be a turning point. The West would tear itself apart, leaving Ukraine to Russia.
Those hopes have proved illusory. After initial enthusiasm, Mr. Trump has cooled on his Russian counterpart, recently referring to him as 鈥渃razy.鈥 He may still act on his stated desire to do business with Mr. Putin but will be unable to deliver either Ukraine or the West. Hard facts forbid it. Russia鈥檚 brutal war has horrified and terrified the West, jolting it into a collective effort of containment and turning Europe conclusively against Russia. These developments, far from trivial or temporary, will limit Russia鈥檚 prospects for security and prosperity for decades to come.
Russia has always needed the West and benefited from contact with it. Because of an unnecessary war, Mr. Putin has lost it for good.