By Ruth Mosalski
A second poll has projected that Reform UK would, in a general election, demolish the traditional political parties and Nigel Farage would get enough votes to be Prime Minister. Between June 10 and 17, pollsters Electoral Calculus asked 5,400 people how they would vote. Once people who said they would not vote or did not know are removed from the figures, the poll puts Reform UK on 31% of the vote, ahead of Labour ‘s 22%. The Conservatives were in third on 19%. In terms of the number of seats won, Reform are predicted to win an outright majority at a future Westminster election with 377 seats (a 104 seat majority), with Labour winning 118 seats and the Liberal Democrats winning 69. That would see Nigel Farage become Prime Minister without the need for any parliamentary coalition or alliances because even if all the other parties joined forces, they would not have enough seats to prevent Farage walking into Number 10. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here . The following Labour cabinet ministers are at risk of losing their seats would be at risk of losing their seats, Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Pat McFadden, Wes Streeting, Jonathan Reynolds, Liz Kendall, John Healey, Heidi Alexander, Hilary Benn, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Lucy Powell. In terms of high-profile Conservatives who would be at risk according to the poll, commissioned by PLMR, the pollsters say James Cleverly, Iain Duncan Smith, Mel Stride, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt (to LIB), Oliver Dowden, Robert Jenrick, Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel would all lose their seats. However there is a warning that public opinion is volatile, and Labour is less than a year into its time in government. Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon. The ‘big two’ established parties now only command the support of 41% of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years. “If Labour could bring back disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, then they could easily beat Reform. “As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front.” The pollsters asked people the top issues that influence their vote – cost of living, NHS and immigration were the top three topics. This poll comes after another MRP poll by YouGov which also projected that Reform would romp to victory in the next general election. That map for Wales shows Labour would be left with just four of the 32 constituencies. The party currently has 27 MPs in Wales. Of the four constituencies Labour would keep, three are in the nation’s capital and the other is also in south Wales. You can see that here. The Electoral Calculus poll shows something slightly different for Wales, with five seats remaining Labour. Monmouthshire , Gower, and Cardiff West, North and South and Penarth , would all remain Labour. Plaid would retain its four seats, but the rest would be represented by Reform, including the current sole Liberal Democrat seat of Brecon , Radnor and Cwm Tawe. MRP polls are have been used to successfully predict the last three British general elections, and gives the estimated result in each Westminster constituency. In previous polls relating to the Senedd election in May 2026, Reform has also been projected to do well and push Labour from the party in power into third place. Two polls have now put Eluned Morgan’s party with 18% of the vote, behind Reform UK and Plaid Cymru .