PM braced for revolt over welfare after defending his record of a year in power

By David Lynch

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is braced for a revolt in a key vote on his Government’s welfare reforms, after defending his record of a year in power.

Some 39 Labour MPs have indicated they will vote to halt an overhaul of the benefits system on Tuesday evening, though that number is far lower than the 83 needed to overturn the Prime Minister’s working majority.

However, more are expected to join them in what could be the largest revolt of Sir Keir’s time in office.

Ahead of the parliamentary showdown, the Prime Minister insisted at a meeting with his senior ministers that the Government could look back with a “real sense of pride and achievement” as the July 5 anniversary of his first year in office nears.

Ministers have given working people a “chance to thrive, not just survive”, Sir Keir also told the Cabinet meeting, according to a No 10 spokesman.

Downing Street pointed to trade deals, economic growth, the extra long-term investment in the spending review, and a cut in NHS waiting lists among the Government’s achievements one year on.

The spokesman added: “(The Prime Minister) said the Government’s work is all designed and focused on improving the lives of working people and giving them the chance to thrive, not just survive, and the Government should be proud of those achievements as a team.”

Cabinet ministers, and even Sir Keir himself, were said to be involved in efforts to persuade Labour MPs not to join the rebels ahead of the crunch Commons debate.

Ministers hope a partial U-turn on the benefit cuts, which will protect existing claimants of personal independence payments (Pip) and the health element of universal credit, will be enough to win over Labour rebels.

As the second reading of the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill began in the Commons, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said reforms to the welfare system are needed to ensure its longevity.

“I do not believe that this is sustainable if we want a welfare state that protects people who most need our help for generations to come,” the senior minister said.

She added: “There is no responsibility in leaving our system of social security to continue as it is, and risk support for it becoming so frayed that it is no longer there to provide a safety net for those who can never work, and who most need our help and support.”

To see off the threat of far greater rebellion by some 126 Labour MPs led by Treasury Committee chairwoman Dame Meg Hillier, the Government last week softened the impact of its changes to protect some 370,000 existing Pip claimants who had been set to lose out following reassessment.

Ministers also committed to a review of the system, involving disabled people and led by disabilities minister Sir Stephen Timms, and unfreezing the higher universal credit rate for those already claiming the health-related element.

As a result of the U-turn, the reforms are expected to save less than half the £5 billion the Government had expected from its initial proposals.

In the Commons, Ms Kendall faced warnings the Timms review could be published after the reforms themselves are implemented.

She insisted any changes to be made following the review will be done so “as soon as is practically possible via primary or secondary legislation”, though Downing Street would earlier not guarantee Sir Stephen’s review would be completed by the time reforms are implemented.

No 10 was also insistent that Government modelling, which predicts the welfare proposals will push 150,000 more people into poverty by 2030, was “subject to uncertainty”.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the Government’s plans were “driven not by principle but by panic”.

Indicating that the Tories will not support the Government, Mrs Badenoch told the Commons: “By 2030, on this Government’s spending plans, we will hit £100 billion on health and disability benefits alone, that is more than what we spend on defence, and this should make everyone in this House stop and think, because this Bill does nothing to fix that problem, and that is why we cannot support it.”

She described the Bill as a “fudge”, adding: “A fundamental and serious programme to reform our welfare system is required, and this Bill is not it.”

Rachael Maskell, the leading force of the rebellion which seeks to halt the Bill in its tracks on Tuesday night, urged MPs to join her in the voting lobbies.

The York Central MP told the Commons: “These Dickensian cuts belong to a different era and a different party.

“They are far from what this Labour Party is for, a party to protect the poor, as is my purpose, for I am my brother’s keeper.”

Ahead of the Commons debate, Ms Maskell indicated she believed “many more” Labour MPs than the 39 who had signed her “reasoned amendment” would join her in rebelling.

The Liberal Democrats are also expected to back the rebel amendment, the party’s work and pensions spokesman Steve Darling told the Commons.

Ministers have been coy about whether rebel Labour MPs will face disciplinary action, with Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds telling broadcasters he was “not aware” they would lose the party whip, but said “those issues are for the chief whip”.

Elsewhere, critic of the Bill Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, hit out at the parliamentary process it will undergo, claiming it was all wrong.

On social media site X, he wrote: “Third Reading in eight days? A timetable like that diminishes the role of MPs in getting this legislation right, shuts out disabled people and puts too many at risk.”

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