Scarcely had the embers of Operation Sindoor mellowed, did the world wake up to the eruption of Operation Rising Lion in the Israel-Iran conflict. Even as both operations continue, the world’s geopolitical calculus is metamorphosing into a menacing form characterised by VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity). Even as militaries mobilise, economic and informational warfare are well underway—China’s latest restrictions on rare earth magnet exports threaten to bring the mammoth Indian automotive industry to a grinding halt. Salvos are fired not only from missile silos, but through supply chains as well.
In this threnody of war, something fundamental seems to have crystallised in India’s geopolitical thinking vis-à-vis our strategic perspective on Pakistan. For the first time ever, we appear to have correctly contextualised that Pakistan’s ideological basis of waging war against Bhārat and Hindus aligns fully with the economic and political interests of its army, and that the same cannot be corrected by us through constructive engagement. Second, our government has realised that our internal and external enemies form a single continuum—one cannot be treated as separate from the other. Hence, illegals being deported, rioters’ houses being bulldozed, and armed attack, all deal with what is essentially the same issue.
Previously, our strategic outlook was to achieve a reorientation in Pakistan, such that it ceases the operations of its terror industry. This was attempted first through détente (social courtesies with Nawaz Sharif), then with disengagement (terror and talks do not go together), and finally by taking punitive action (Balakot). Despite all this, it was impossible to make Pakistan stop using terror as state policy simply because far too many interests depended on its continued intransigence to serve multifarious purposes.
With this certainty, we seem to have finally accepted that only dismantling the State of Pakistan can guarantee India’s long-term safety and security. So, focus has shifted to degrading Pakistani capabilities (targeting its air defense) and striking at its very viability (reducing downstream flows from the Indus system; banning trade via third countries). Our objective, simply stated, would be to balkanise Pakistan. The baffled reactions from some sections of our noisy commentariat seem to indicate that our government’s decisive change in orientation is indeed on the right lines.
The ongoing conflict in Iran will undoubtedly have Pakistan being used by both sides of the conflict at times, depending on whose bid is higher. However, unlike the Afghan conflict in the past, Pakistan is today not indispensable either to the US or to China. It is hence prone to being punished by either of these major powers if it tries to play one against the other. In all likelihood, it will end up with burnt fingers, or be taken for granted as a helpless vassal. The era of limitless foreign help propping up Pakistan for it to pretend that it has any semblance of parity with us is over.
In such circumstances, India’s path ahead will be challenging, with every assault against Pakistan met with domestic disturbances and feigned international consternation. However, there is no turning back for us. India must fight, and alone, as all its enemies reveal themselves as a single entity.
The critical element in fulfilling India’s objectives concerning Pakistan will be to prevent its local conflict from being turned into a theatre for a broader global war. Both sides, Western as well as Chinese, would be greatly interested in pulling Bhārat down into a longer, messier conflict as in the Ukraine, destabilising its hard-earned political stability and derailing its economic rise. If anything, a singular, long conflict with Pakistan will greatly delay our $5+ trillion GDP ambitions. Such a delay may prove unaffordable for us, since all of our projections hinge upon making a transition to an economic power of a magnitude that we cannot be ignored or defeated by others, but only dealt with by them.
In summary, the twin national security imperatives of dismantling the State of Pakistan, and becoming a $5+ (ultimately, $10+) economy need to be addressed simultaneously. To us, it seems there is only one credible strategy to attain our economic ambitions and that is to fuse sustained non-kinetic means of degrading Pakistan’s capabilities (water, trade, etc.) with intense short kinetic actions, such as the first phase of Operation Sindoor, so that we take out critical assets and military capabilities of the enemy. A war of attrition is to be avoided at all costs.
The distinction between the civilian and the military in Pakistan will have to be discarded once and for all; a nation as radicalised as Pakistan is no less a threat than their terrorist army, they are for all intents and purposes, part of a singular whole. The civilian in Pakistan becomes a conduit to portray victimhood, and a tool to manufacture instability. In turn, let us also be realistic about those who may be citizens of India on paper, but are animated by foreign intrigues in their hearts and maybe wallets.
We must secure the western and northwestern frontiers of the subcontinent. History stands testament to the fact that it is in these areas where our geographical vulnerabilities have been most fully exposed over centuries. As West Asia destabilises, the threat of terrorists from West Asia landing up here is a real one as long as Pakistan continues to facilitate the same. To set up Balochis and Pashtuns as the first line of defence for a shared subcontinental future, beginning with the military but ultimately culminating in the civilisational through economics, should be a medium-term goal for Bhārat.
However, more immediately, what may we expect given our government’s recent actions? With water volumes down all across Pakistan, their kharif crop will be poor. The pressure on the army to keep peddling higher doses of anti-Hindu jingoism will be high. Our immediate neighbourhood will continue to fester, mostly through foreign insistence. Misinformation will be peddled by the foreign-funded ecosystem pervading the media and our politics. We need to be watchful, and stay steadfast. Post-monsoons, Pakistan may face floods via the Indus with our blessings; things may take a particularly ugly turn militarily as the first snows begin blocking passes in the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush, even as another window of opportunity opens for Bhārat. Winters have helped or harmed armies on more than one occasion in world history, and we project that a winter war can decisively favour us in 2025.
The world will be frigid towards the security of our country, with perhaps the exception of a few countries like Israel, which face a similar predicament. The closer we move towards winter, temperatures in and around Bhārat are expected to soar. Our future will be forged in the fires we are still to face; we cannot continue to let down our future generations with inaction clothed as conscientiousness.
“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.” ~ Winston S. Churchill in 1936 on the eve of World War II.
Gautam R. Desiraju is in IISc, Bengaluru and UPES, Dehradun. Deekhit Bhattacharya is in Luthra Law Associates, Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.