By Gina Bou Serhal Special to Gulf News
This year’s NATO Summit in The Hague, held from June 24 to 25, was anything but routine. While the ongoing war in Ukraine remains the focus of NATO’s agenda, the atmosphere was markedly different from previous gatherings. For the first time since returning to office, US President Trump attended the summit under his second administration, bringing with him not only his characteristic unpredictability but also a radically transactional approach to diplomacy that has reshaped the transatlantic alliance.Ahead of his arrival in the Netherlands, Trump spoke with reporters on the White House lawn in what should have been a moment of triumph, an opportunity to tout his recently brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel. But the moment quickly soured. Pressed by journalists, a visibly frustrated Trump confirmed that the ceasefire had already collapsed. Using unusually explicit language on camera, he vented his anger at both sides for breaking the deal. His deflated posture was unmistakable, the posture of a president who, even before boarding Air Force One, was already stripped of the diplomatic victory he had planned to brandish in The Hague as evidence that he alone could untangle both the Middle East and Ukraine..Trump reassures allies as NATO agrees ‘historic’ spending hike.Nonetheless, mindful of Trump’s unpredictability, NATO leaders greeted the US President with a carefully calibrated display of respect and pragmatism – whether out of genuine camaraderie or strategic necessity, the alliance appeared unified, at least on the surface. Much of that unity, however, was underpinned by a thin layer of flattery. In truth, NATO’s leaders know exactly what they are dealing with. Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw the United States from the alliance if European members do not meet their defence spending obligations. His transactional worldview is no secret, and this summit was no exception.In a startling breach of diplomatic norms, Trump took to social media shortly after landing to post private screenshots of text messages exchanged with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister. In the messages, Rutte appeared to heap praise on Trump’s ability to force allies into agreeing to a new defence spending framework. “Europe is going to pay in a big way, as they should, and it will be your win,” Rutte wrote, words that sparked backlash among European audiences and discomfort within diplomatic circles..Iran-Israel conflict: Trump compares ‘devastating’ Iran strike to Hiroshima.To critics, it was a humiliating display: the head of the world’s most successful military alliance reduced to stroking the ego of a US president who has made no secret of his scepticism toward NATO. But for NATO leaders, the math is simple: flattery is the price of survival in the age of Trump.The summit’s most significant outcome was the adoption of an ambitious new defence investment framework, raising the spending target from the long-standing 2% of GDP to 5% by 2035. The breakdown includes 3.5% for core military expenditures, covering personnel, weapons, and readiness, and 1.5% dedicated to civil resilience, which includes cybersecurity, critical infrastructure protection, and investments in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and energy security..In my first 100 days, I kept my promise to the American people.This is not merely symbolic. NATO’s shift recognises that modern warfare extends beyond conventional battlefields. Securing data centres, preventing cyberattacks on power grids, and ensuring resilient supply chains are now as important as tanks and fighter jets. This expanded definition of security brings NATO’s priorities into alignment with nations like the United Arab Emirates, which has already made major investments in AI, cybersecurity, and technology-driven defence. For the UAE, the summit’s focus on resilience and innovation presents an opportunity to deepen cooperation with NATO members, particularly in dual-use technologies that serve both civilian and military purposes.Still, not all members are on board equally. Spain and Italy remain below the previous 2% threshold, spending just 1.13% and 0.92% respectively in 2024. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez openly resisted the 5% goal, stating that Spain could commit only to 2.1%, citing domestic political constraints. In response, NATO granted Spain a waiver, exempting it from the full 5% target. Yet the pressure was palpable, with Trump framing the entire negotiation as a personal victory, one he eagerly broadcasted to his political base back home..Trump’s latest rejection of intelligence assessments reflects a long distrust of spy agencies.While much of the summit remained focused on Ukraine, the diplomatic signals were mixed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, despite being in The Hague, was not invited to the summit’s formal closed-door session. Instead, he was offered only an informal dinner invitation the night before, symbolic recognition, but far from the substantive participation he had hoped for. Zelenskyy’s exclusion underscores a reality that Ukraine’s future in NATO remains deeply uncertain.Indeed, the summit’s final communique made no mention of Ukraine’s NATO membership, reflecting Trump’s longstanding opposition to Ukraine joining the alliance. However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in his closing remarks, went further than the text itself, reaffirming support for Ukraine’s “irreversible path” to NATO membership. Whether this reflects a lasting commitment or the constraints of the current political reality remains uncertain, circumstances may only change after the 2028 US election should a new president take a different view on Ukraine’s NATO membership.Meanwhile, tensions beyond Europe weighed heavily. Just days before the summit, the US launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, an action undertaken without Congressional approval. Iran retaliated with strikes on a US base in Qatar, dramatically escalating regional tensions. The risk was clear: while NATO attempted to project unity and focus on Ukraine, the Middle East threatened to overshadow the agenda entirely. For countries like the UAE, the danger of further regional escalation was impossible to ignore..UAE a pivotal mediator in preventing war in the region.In the broader picture, the 2025 NATO Summit offered a stark snapshot of today’s geopolitical landscape. It revealed an alliance adapting, sometimes awkwardly, to an era where security threats are hybrid, diffuse, and technologically driven. It also revealed an alliance held together, at least for now, by a fragile combination of shared interests and careful management of one leader’s unpredictable impulses.For the UAE, the message is clear. The increasing integration of cybersecurity, AI, and infrastructure resilience into NATO’s defence priorities mirrors the UAE’s own strategic investments. In a world where military power now intersects with technological dominance, the UAE stands well-positioned to collaborate with NATO members, not only as a regional partner but as a rising player in global defence innovation.As the summit concludes, one thing is certain: NATO’s future, like much of today’s world order, is being rewritten in real time, and in the age of Trump, no outcome is ever truly guaranteed..Gina Bou Serhal is Director of Trends Belgium Virtual Office and Senior Researcher