Maduro is continuing to expand his hybrid war against Guyana

By Stabroek News

Dear Editor,

On June 24, Chief of Staff of the GDF, Brigadier Omar Khan, was the inaugural guest on a new weekly state social media programme that spells out its theme in its name, “Safeguarding the Nation”. Asked about the present threat from Venezuela, which – after years of hostile acts that included massing its navy and army near our border – had recently purported to annex Essequibo and elect a Governor and legislators to administer it, Brigadier Khan said flatly, “Venezuela and their claim to the Essequibo, is more political theatre than military threat. We, however, are being cautious. As a defence force, we’re operating within our defence policy. Of the DIME construct.”

While as a commentator on the Venezuelan Border Controversy for over three decades, I am pleased that the government is ratcheting up its informational operations, I am concerned about the Brigadier’s assertion that Venezuela’s actions are “more political theatre than military threat”. Firstly, as head of our military, it is not within his remit to pronounce definitively on our overall national strategic posture. In our democratic polity, this is for his civilian overseers, headed by the president to say since in the DIME construct he mentions, these instruments of power – Diplomacy, Information, Military and Economic – are all within the latter’s bailiwick. Secondly, while he heads the Military instrument, his assessment of Venezuela’s actions evidently considers only an armed invasion by Venezuelan military forces as a “military threat”.

However, I have been emphasizing for two years that while Maduro’s action may be motivated by domestic imperatives of political survival, he has long gone beyond rhetoric and launched a hybrid, gray zone war to actually annex Essequibo. Rather than the old “kinetic wars”, today, military establishments now discuss, prepare for, and engage in “hybrid wars”. These are fought not on battlefields but in a “gray zone encompassing all domains and societal institutions using a range of different methods to attack an enemy. These include the aforementioned “DIME construct” which has now been extended to “DIME-FIL” to include Financial, Intelligence and Legal instruments.

In its hybrid war against us Maduro has extended those instruments by using propaganda, criminal networks, infiltration by fifth columnists, narcotic and gold smuggling etc. But what is ironic about the claim of “no military threat” is there have been “kinetic” encounters between members of the Sindicatos and our GDF, where the latter have been shot at and injured. These Sindicatos are criminal gangs that control illegal gold mining in Venezuela’s Bolivar state that adjoins Essequibo across the Cuyuni River and work hand in glove with Maduro’s civilian authorities, in addition to his military commanders.

Then there is the mass migration out of Venezuela, which we have to accept has been and will continue to be weaponized. Among the migrants or refugees there are members of criminal gangs such as the Tren de Aragua who have been planted to conduct disruptions within our country. As one analyst has argued about their modus operandi in other countries: “Critical infrastructure would be the most obvious target—power grids, transportation systems, water supplies. Disruptions in any of these areas could cause widespread public alarm and paralyze emergency response. Large public gatherings like sporting events or political rallies are vulnerable as well. So are economic centers such as ports and supply chains, where a well-timed act of sabotage could have ripple effects across entire regions. A sudden attack could cripple local emergency services, delaying responses or causing panic and confusion.” Aragua already operates in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and the US and now we have the instances of a police outpost at East Ruimveldt and a nearby GPL substation attacked by Venezuelans.

We cannot claim to be misinformed of Maduro’s intentions. After satellite images showed Venezuelans building a bridge to our half of Ankoko Island, which they have occupied since 1966, the Venezuelan Strategic Operational Commander of its National Armed Forces (FANB), Major General Domingo Hernández Larez revealed that the move was the start of operations to implement the annexation of Essequibo: “Engineers of the territorial defensive system complied crossing the Cuyuni River through the campaign bridge to bring harmony and progress to our territory of the Guyana Essequibo State. Machinery will pass, we will build schools, universities, health centres, supply centres, interconnection tracks, commerce and many other productive projects in favour of our fellow Essequibans”.

I hope that the National Intelligence & Security Agency (NISA) is keeping our civilian authorities informed.

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