By Mujtaba Rahman
On the left, the stage is even more crowded. The perennial hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is showing at 13 to 15 percent in early first-round polling despite his status as the most disliked man in French politics, with negatives of over 70 percent. As always, his undeclared but likely presence in the race will make it difficult for a broad-left candidate to emerge.
Still, the strongest early contender on the moderate, pro-European left is Raphaël Glucksmann — a member of the European Parliament who performed surprisingly well in the 2024 European elections and is currently polling at 10 to 11 percent. Both Glucksmann and Mélenchon have ruled out participating in any pan-left primary contest.
Meanwhile, the once powerful center-left Socialist Party remains split between its radical and reformist, pro-European wings. Narrowly retaining his seat for a fourth time, the party’s left-leaning First Secretary Olivier Faure hopes to be its presidential candidate for 2027. However, at least two rising figures from the party’s moderate wing — Carole Dega, president of the southwest Occitanie region, and Karim Boumrane, mayor of Saint-Ouen in the Paris suburbs — plan to oppose him.
So, overall, it looks like there will probably be up to eight left-wing candidates in the presidential race by the end of next year.
For the far right, being in pole position doesn’t necessarily translate to victory either, though.
Polling numbers remain strong for the National Rally party despite the March court verdict banning opposition leader Marine Le Pen from seeking office for five years. All recent surveys show Le Pen and her deputy, Jordan Bardella, boasting over 30 percent of first-round support. And if confirmed in April 2027, either of them would be in pole position to win the runoff the following month — but that’s still no guarantee.