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New Zealand exporters have so far avoided what government officials are calling a rapid escalation in trade tensions.
A market intelligence report by NZ Foreign Affairs and Trade says the imposition earlier this year of tariffs on imports into the United States by President Donald Trump placed a direct cost on most NZ exports, but there are few signs of trade disruption.
Prices for NZ commodities remain elevated, with the value of merchandised exports in April 25% higher than a year earlier.
The report quotes the ANZ bank鈥檚 commodity price index as steady in April due to higher dairy and meat prices, which have offset falls in prices for forestry and aluminium.
Export prices in May appear to have held with strong gains in the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, the price index about 11% higher than the start of the year.
However, the report notes some smaller niche exporters have been hit by the 25% additional tariffs on steel and aluminium and there could be higher indirect costs from the complex and time-consuming clearance procedures through US customs.
This relatively minor impact on NZ trade is in contrast to the impact on China.
Chinese exports to the US in April were about 20% lower than for the same month a year earlier, requiring those additional goods to be diverted to other markets.
China Customs reports the largest contractions were in electrical products, mechanical machinery and consumer goods such as furniture, toys and games, and clothing.
Overall, China鈥檚 exports in April increased 5.6% year on year with the decline in the US offset by a 20.8% jump in shipments to ASEAN economies
While there has been a temporary respite in trade tensions between the US and China, the report noted shipping costs have risen on some trans-Pacific routes.
US imports were 25% higher in the first quarter of the year than a year earlier, indicating importers were bringing forward orders while tariffs were lower.
The report notes International Monetary Fund data that shows the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handled almost 22% more imports by volume in the March quarter compared to the same periods in 2023 and 2024.
The Port of New York and New Jersey had an 11% increase in throughput in the March quarter compared to the past few years.