By Lucas Robinson
Can Democrats get a new chance to reshape county spending? Or will there be a Republican restoration to county politics?
The future of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors is in the hands of South County voters, as the special election ending Tuesday will break the board鈥檚 monthslong deadlock and shape county government for years to come.
Democrats have pinned their hopes for reclaiming control of the board on Paloma Aguirre, the first-term mayor of Imperial Beach and a longtime environmental political activist.
Republicans are trying to not become 0-2 on the year for gaining seats on the board, after former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer lost his challenge to Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer just eight months ago.
The race鈥檚 Republican candidate, Chula Vista Mayor John McCann, had the strongest showing of any candidate in a crowded April primary, consolidating the conservative vote as a longtime elected official in the county鈥檚 second-largest city.
The county鈥檚 First Supervisorial District, which stretches from central portions of the city of San Diego south to the U.S.-Mexico border, has a more than 2-to-1 Democratic registration advantage.
But all eyes are on turnout, often low in special elections.
Tuesday is the last day to vote in the race, whether in person at one of 13 vote centers open until 8 p.m. or by dropping one鈥檚 ballot in the mail or a county drop box. A list of locations is available at sdvote.com.
As of Monday, only about 62,000 registered voters had returned their ballots 鈥 or about 17% of the 370,000 who live in the South County district.
One key factor reducing turnout is confusion among residents who voted for supervisor just last year, said Itzel Maganda-Chavez, civic engagement director for Alliance San Diego, a community group that鈥檚 run a nonpartisan get-out-the-vote effort in the region.
She estimates about a fifth of households are unaware an election is happening at all.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of apathy within the voters themselves,鈥 she added, noting that the Trump administration and its aggressive, law-skirting immigration enforcement has alienated people from the electoral process.
鈥淭he national rhetoric has an impact on people, and on how likely they are to talk to strangers at their doors,鈥 she said.
Initial returns look to favor Aguirre. About 47% of the ballots cast by late last week came from registered Democrats, compared with 32% from Republicans, according to data analyzed by political consultant Mason Herron. The remainder came from voters who declined to declare a party affiliation.
鈥淭he numbers aren鈥檛 dramatically different from the primary, but the trajectory looks consistent with what we鈥檇 expect in a Dem-leaning environment,鈥 Herron said.
As election results flow in over the coming days and a winner is confirmed, it will spell an end to the monthslong uncertainty on where the board goes from here.
Since the surprise resignation of former Supervisor Nora Vargas in December, the panel鈥檚 two Democrats and two Republicans have repeatedly deadlocked on measures that could result in significant policy shifts for the county.
In early May, the board failed to pass a marquee plan from Lawson-Remer that would change how the county calculates the available money it keeps in reserve 鈥 an effort that aimed in part to help weather federal funding cuts.
Other measures 鈥 one to expand legal aid for detained immigrants, another to notify residents when their federal benefits face cuts 鈥 have similarly failed along partisan lines.
Depending on which candidate South County voters back, those bigger policy moves could be resurrected in short order.
Aguirre has backed Lawson-Remer鈥檚 reserves policy and made the threats posed by the Trump administration a cornerstone of her campaign.
If McCann wins, a return to a more tight-fisted county is all but certain. On the campaign trail, McCann鈥檚 echoed the fiscal hawkishness of Supervisor Jim Desmond. A constant critic of liberal programs and tax proposals, Desmond routinely warns the county has to start enacting budget cuts to make its budget more sustainable in the long-term.
Desmond has identified some areas of county funding he鈥檇 like to see cut and McCann has backed them too, like a $5 million legal aid fund for detained immigrants.
But even if that program were cut, it would do little to right-size the county budget. The most recent estimates show a budget gap worth hundreds of millions of dollars in the years ahead, which could be made even worse by federal funding cuts.
If it wants to avoid more spending cuts, the county has to bring in more revenue. Since voters rejected a half-cent sales tax hike in November, Lawson-Remer has floated a 1% tax on the sale of expensive real estate but has said she鈥檚 receptive to any idea that brings in more revenue to county coffers.
What sorts of revenue proposals Aguirre will support remains uncertain. She expressed opposition to the real estate tax during a debate with McCann last month.