Western airlines risk suffering greater disruption than their Chinese rivals this summer, as the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel 鈥 compounded by US military strikes 鈥 forces most carriers to avoid flying over dangerous airspace on China-Europe routes.
Analysts said that while almost all carriers have diverted services to bypass Iran and parts of the Middle East, Western firms are at a disadvantage: they remain barred from Russian airspace, which Chinese companies continue to use.
鈥淔or travellers, especially those from China, it鈥檚 all about airfare and flight times,鈥 said an analyst at the Shanghai-based aviation news portal and consultancy Airwefly.
鈥淭he latest developments may widen the competitive gap Chinese airlines already have over others.鈥
Iran, Israel, Iraq and Jordan have intermittently closed their airspace since the Israeli government began its military campaign against Iran on June 13. The United States launched air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, raising fears of a wider regional war and further disrupting flights between Europe and Asia.
Both Western and Chinese carriers have avoided Iranian skies in recent days over concerns that their aircraft could be misidentified by air defence systems. Flight diversions and cancellations increased after Tehran鈥檚 missile assault on an American military base in Qatar on Monday, according to airlines and some media reports.
Western firms have diverted flights through Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan as well as southern routes over Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the airlines and media reports said. In contrast, Chinese airlines have more flexibility after Moscow closed its airspace to the West after the Russia-Ukraine war started in 2022.
鈥淲estern flights now have two no-go zones 鈥 Russia and Iran 鈥 so the narrow corridor via Central Asia or North Africa is the only viable option and will become more crowded with higher operational complexity. They are burning more fuel and thus more money,鈥 said Brian Yang Bo, an aviation industry veteran and consultant.
鈥淐hinese flights, naturally, use Russia鈥檚 vast territorial skies.鈥
More Air China and China Southern flights have flown over Russia to Europe in recent days, according to Flightradar24 and other flight tracker websites.
Before the latest tensions, Chinese airlines such as Air China, China Southern, China Eastern, Hainan Airlines and Xiamen Air operated routes through Iranian airspace 鈥 including connections from Beijing to London, Dubai and Israel鈥檚 Tel Aviv, as well as Shanghai to Frankfurt and Dubai and Guangzhou to London and Istanbul.
Despite the recent diversions, Chinese travellers are unlikely to notice significant changes, thanks to the abundance of choices offered by domestic airlines, analysts said.
Data from British aviation intelligence firm OAG indicates that about 10 million two-way seats between mainland China and Europe are expected to be available this summer, representing a 4.2 per cent increase over a year ago.
鈥淔or China routes, summer holidays or otherwise, there may be slightly different routings and slightly longer flight times but nothing that should impact consumers,鈥 said John Grant, a senior analyst with OAG.
The use of Russian airspace by Chinese airlines saves fuel and time 鈥 an advantage that could see them gain greater market share at the cost of Western firms.
Over the past 12 months, they have launched multiple new routes via Russia while European airlines like Lufthansa and British Airways have cut back on their China operations, citing higher costs and reduced demand.
European firms collectively account for around 18 per cent of total capacity between Europe and China this year, down from about a quarter last summer. In the summer of 2019, they held 41 per cent of the market.