Last Monday, Iran chose to retaliate against the triple strikes led by the United States against its nuclear facilities by sending its missiles to US bases located in Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq. The six missiles that targeted an empty base in Qatar were meant largely for effect. They made a lot of noise, but found no targets. However, they managed to help Iran prove a point that it was unfazed by the US bunker buster bombs dropped at its nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natantz. Some Western media channels claim that what the US did at Fordow was no different from what Iran did at Qatar. Photoshopped images of events on both sides were used by Iran and the US to call for ceasefire, which was happily declared by US President Donald Trump and accepted by Israel.While there have been reports of Israel breaking the ceasefire, to which Trump has reacted, this is the second time in two months that Trump has declared ceasefires, in two different geographies and four between different combatants. While the first duo—India and Pakistan—promptly agreed to the ceasefire even though they were going up the escalatory ladder, the other one—Iran and Israel—is trickier. The US Has Entered the Israel-Iran War. What Will Happen Next?Though President Trump in his typical folksy style praised both Iran and Israel, it will be difficult to get them to keep their hostilities low. It is not clear whether Trump will get a Noble Peace Prize, as MAGA supporters are no doubt expecting, after his planned de-escalation into two wars that gave an impression of spinning out of control. But the truth is that the US President, whether you like him or not, is a kind of maverick that the world has never seen.Take, for instance, Trump’s handling of Israel. While some are calling it a stroke of strategic genius, others feel it’s just pure politics of survival.All along, it was apparent that Israeli PM, Bibi Netanyahu was trying to drag the US and its President into the war in the Middle East. Though Israel had already started attacking Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, the belief among observers was that they would not be able to hurt these facilities till the American bunker busters take them out. Trump gave an impression of buying time by announcing that he needed 14 days to take a decision. By the look of it, it turned out to be an act of deception, much like many other moves that he made before targeting Fordow on 22 June.No one has come out authoritatively about what became of Fordow post the strikes or about the extent of the damage. Some media reports suggested that US government gave ample time to Iran to withdraw its nuclear centrifuge from Fordow, with Trump hedging for more time, before it sent its B2 stealth bomber and offloaded 30,000 tonnes of bomb near the Iranian holy city of Qom, where Fordow is located.The extent of damage on Iran’s nuclear assets by Iranian missiles remains equally vague. The truth remains buried in the smoke and the large, mountainous boulders that protect the nuclear site, which as per reports, is 80-100 metres deep in the earth. The Israeli aircrafts are believed to have only hit as deep as 20 metres. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had denied that Iran or any of its sites were close to building the bomb. The US Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Tulsi Gabbard, appointed by Trump, had also said that the US had no intelligence suggesting that Iran was close to building the bomb.At that time, Trump had seemed to buy the Gabbard report, perhaps in a bid to satisfy the anti-war constituencies within MAGA, but then jettisoned it soon after, seemingly under pressure from the Israeli PM.Netanyahu’s spurious claim that Iran was days away from it eventually held greater sway, tiding over whatever initial resistance the US and IAEA would wield.Some US watchers feel that the manner in which Trump chose to ignore his own intelligence reports and overlook the demands of MAGA supporters who brought him to power—a rareity in itself—are considerable indications to point at the hand of the deep state. Despite opposition from within MAGA, hints of the deep state threatening to precipitate the impeachment proceeding against Trump if he did not bomb Iran’s nuclear site had started doing the rounds soon after 13 June.That he did not wait for even the promised 14 days before promptly attacking Iran makes it amply clear that Trump was in no mood to be distracted, neither by Russian President Vladimir Putin nor by his own followers. The bombs were followed by tweets and statements given wherein he promised peace and violence in the same breath.US Bombing Isn’t a Real Blow to Iran’s Nuclear Sites or AmbitionsAs a leading West Asian power, Iran had a reputation to protect and thus following the Israeli strike on 13 June, it launched a fusillade of retaliatory missiles back at Israel. Some of them were hypersonic missiles that went far beyond the capability of the famous Israeli air defence dome.As cities of Israel burnt and its war-weary citizens started leaving the country in big numbers—many to Cyprus—the war seemed to be escalating and not in a way that Israel had perhaps imagined. Israeli refugees in Cyprus claimed in interviews given to international media that they had not slept for days and needed to escape the tiny nation. Reports also claimed that military installations in different parts of Israel were hit including the prestigious, hi-tech Weizmann Institute labs, destroying decades and millions worth of research and infrastructure. Israel was bombed out in a manner it had never seen, nor perhaps expected.Shattered by years of sanctions, Iran fought its asymmetrical war valiantly in true underdog style. Shorn of resources, it devised all kinds of drones, many of them made using cheap, rudimentary material, to wreak havoc on Israel. It was only a matter of time, though, before the Israeli f-16 and f-35 thwarted the Iranian onslaught. Iran lost a lot of its military commanders, nuclear scientists and more, due to Mossad. Even according to Iranian media, the Israeli intelligence was reportedly successful in large scale subversion of the existing security apparatus of Iran, having long and meticulously worked on creating a network of spies and infiltrators and AI-driven devices and military technology to stake out its targets.In the fog of war, a lot of fake news was generated and lapped up by war-hungry media consumers. It was claimed the Iranians had downed F-35 fifth-generation Israeli aircraft, even though no debris has been found.Is This a Recent Image of Iran’s Police Headquarters in Tehran Burning? No!Meanwhile, other unverified reports claimed that a certain Mossad agent of French descent even played the role of a honeytrap, Mata Hari-style, leading to the assassinations of key Iranian army commanders. The claims may seem fantastic but the truth is that Israel has long wanted regime change in Iran and may have covertly been hoping that one of these subversives could perhaps luck out in their “assignments” and help bring it about. The US, on the other hand, did not want either Ayatollah Khamenei’s assassination or a regime change. All said and done, the uncomfortable truth is that Iran has been completely ravaged by what Trump called the “12-day war”. Many cities in Iran have been bombed and hundreds of people have either been killled or displaced – refugees in their own country. The exact numbers are not descernible now.If the Trump-sponsored ceasefire holds, then it would need many face savers.Firstly, Israelis would have to commit to the belief that Iran’s nuclear prowess has been diminished, as reiterated by the American Vice President JD Vance and Netanyahu himself post-ceasefire. Secondly, sanctions on Iran will have to go. Only then can peace truly return to this conflict-ravaged land. If that happens, though, the Shia clergy-ruled, country with the fourth largest oil reserves in the world may find a way to emerge as an economic powerhouse in the Middle East and Israel’s dream of bringing about regime change in Iran would remain just that—a dream. The Western powers’ attempts to throw out a nationalist government like that of Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1952—whose fall through a US-UK-backed coup brought about the ‘decadent’, West-approved reign of the Shah and eventually made way for the Islamic Revolution —would then remain a dream.(Sanjay Kapoor is a veteran journalist and founder of Hardnews Magazine. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbours, and West Asia. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)’We Got 10 Mins to Board Bus & Leave’: Prayagraj Local, Mother Stranded in Iran(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)