The only safe prediction in this environment is that global spending on defence will continue to soar as Trump threatens to pull the security rug from under long-term allies, triggering a global military upgrade not seen since the end of the 1980s.
鈥淟et me salute President Trump鈥檚 long-standing leadership in calling for NATO to increase defence spending,鈥 NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the assembled EU leaders at the defence organisation鈥檚 opening dinner in the Netherlands.
SPI Asset Management鈥檚 managing partner Stephen Innes has a pithy description for NATO as it鈥檚 being reassembled by Trump, calling it a 鈥減rocurement cartel with teeth鈥.
鈥淭his summit isn鈥檛 just a diplomatic checkpoint,鈥 he writes in his The Dark Side Of The Boom newsletter. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a test of whether Trump can turn NATO from a post-WWII relic into a 21st-century war economy alliance. The market implication? If 5 per cent becomes baseline, defence stocks stop being cyclical 鈥 they become structural. And that changes everything.鈥