By Leopold Chen
Hong Kong travel agencies have not recorded widespread cancellations of Japan-bound tour groups for the coming weekend, despite a manga artist鈥檚 widely discussed prediction that a mega-earthquake will hit the country on Saturday.
But some business insiders suggested the number of tours this summer was expected to fall by half compared with last year.
The Japan National Tourism Organisation reported that only 193,100 visitors from Hong Kong were recorded coming to the country in May, down by 11.2 per cent from the same month last year.
The quake prediction, which originated from a manga titled The Future That I Saw, Complete Edition, published in 2021, pinpoints July 5 as the date for the mega quake.
In a previous edition of the work first published in 1999, author Ryo Tatsuki had warned of a major disaster in March 2011, a date which turned out to coincide with the cataclysmic earthquake that struck Japan鈥檚 northern Tohoku region that very month.
Despite internet chatter on Tatsuki鈥檚 鈥減rediction鈥, two prominent Hong Kong travel agencies, EGL Tours and Arrow Travel Agency, told the Post they had not experienced significant cancellations of Hong Kong tour groups set to depart to Japan soon.
鈥淕uests who have signed up for Japan tour groups would not believe in such rumours,鈥 Steve Huen Kwok-chuen, executive director of EGL Tours, said. 鈥淚f they do, they would not have opted in.鈥
While the rumours had failed to deter holidaymakers, operators were still struggling with a wider drop in demand for Japan tours among Hongkongers.
Huen said 鈥渢he darkest days [for Japan-bound tour groups] have arrived. I think the recovery should take some time鈥.
But he declined to disclose changes in tour group numbers due to regulations for listed companies.
The Japan Meteorological Agency has warned there is an 80 per cent chance that a large-scale shock measured at a magnitude of 8 to 9 would occur along the Nankai Trough running along the country鈥檚 east coast in the coming 30 years.
On Tuesday, Tokyo also revised the estimated toll of a megaquake in the trough to 298,000 direct deaths and 52,000 indirect ones, from 177,000 and 26,000 respectively.
Hong Kong Airlines, one of the city鈥檚 major carriers, has cancelled flights to two Japanese cities in July and August, citing sluggish demand.
Still, Tommy Tam Kwong-shun, managing director of Arrow Travel Agency, said the company had not observed a significant drop in demand for Japan-bound tour groups, and bookings after mid-July were increasing.
鈥淭ravellers may consider that it will be safe after the date,鈥 he said, adding that he believed the demand would soon recover.
Tam added the company had not told tour guides to exercise any extra care and was 鈥渏ust practising the same鈥.
Gianna Hsu Wong Mei-lun, a veteran in the travel industry, said demand for Japan-bound tours could quickly rebound if no major disaster occurs.
鈥淛apan has always been a hotspot for Hong Kong travellers, and July and August coincide with the summer holiday. I believe the demand will catch up soon if people feel safe travelling to Japan,鈥 she said.
In contrast, Lam Chi-ting, a consultant for the tourism industry division of the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions, predicted a sluggish summer for tour groups.
鈥淚n the past, tour guides specialising in Japan tours would have around 10 trips for the summer holiday. But this year there should be only four to six,鈥 Lam said.
Timothy Chui Ting-pong, executive director of the Hong Kong Tourism Association, estimated that the number of tour groups destined for Japan would be reduced by half compared with the same period last year.
鈥淏ut if nothing happens on July 5, the demand will pick up quickly,鈥 he said.
While the Japan National Tourism Organisation鈥檚 figures showed a decline in Hongkongers coming to the country, the overall number of foreign arrivals had increased by 21.5 per cent, reaching a historical high for May.
Hong Kong was the only place that sent fewer visitors to Japan during this period, according to the figures.
The organisation attributed the drop in Hong Kong visitors to 鈥渋nformation that an earthquake was occurring in Japan spreading on social media鈥.