Global avocado exports may top 3 million tonnes in 2026-27

By Gayathri

Global avocado exports may top 3 million tonnes in 2026-27

Global avocado exports are projected to surpass 3 million tonnes (mt) by 2026-27, marking a three-fold increase from 1 mt in 2012-13, according to the recently released ‘Global Avocado Update 2025’ by Rabobank. This surge is primarily driven by the expansion of shipments from the top three exporters — Mexico, Peru and Colombia — which currently account for nearly two-thirds of global exports.

Another key factor is the growing number of avocado-producing nations, as more countries enter the market to tap into historically high profit margins, said David Magaña, Senior Horticulture Analyst at RaboResearch. However, rising competition is starting to pressure margins.

Rapid expansion

According to the report, the global avocado market now exceeds $20 billion in value. Export volumes are expanding rapidly, fuelled by increased production and diversification of exporting countries. However, the emergence of new suppliers has led to seasonal oversupply in some markets — a challenge that will require sustained demand creation and targeted marketing.

The expansion is expected to continue over the next few seasons. The US — the world’s largest importer of the exotic fruit — maintained strong demand in 2024-25. Prices reached record highs due to reduced shipments from Mexico following a production dip. More normal volumes from Mexico are expected in 2025-26, while California is harvesting its largest crop since 2020. Mexico’s production is forecast to rise 3 per cent year-on-year to 2.75 mt in 2025, with exports projected 5 per cent higher at 1.34 mt, according to a US Department of Agriculture-Global Agricultural Information Network (USDA-GAIN) report.

Mexico mainly grows the Hass variety, known for its cold hardiness, durability, texture, and taste. The US market accounts for over 80 per cent of Mexico’s avocado exports by volume, followed by Canada (7 per cent) and Japan (3 per cent). However, trade dynamics may face headwinds from proposed US tariffs on Latin America, potentially impacting prices during peak demand months (December–February).

Demand growth scope

In South America, exports might cross 1 mt in 2025-26, led by Peru, followed by Colombia and Chile. While all three countries are boosting output, only Chile has a significant domestic market. RaboResearch sees strong demand growth potential in other South American countries as well.

Europe continues to show robust demand, sustaining high prices through 2024 and H1 2025. However, large volumes from Peru are weighing on wholesale prices during the 2025 summer period. Marketing efforts will be key to absorbing peak volumes, particularly as Peru and African exporters scale up shipments to Europe.

Australia’s avocado production is projected to rebound in 2025-26 after a 15 per cent dip in 2024-25, rising from 128,000 tonnes to a record 170,000 tonnes. New Zealand is also expected to post further production gains in 2025 following recovery in 2024.

Looking ahead, RaboResearch expects the expansion in planted area to level off. With EU/UK markets poised for continued growth and Asia offering untapped potential, the global avocado sector stands at a strategic inflection point. Industry experts emphasise the need for investment in marketing and consumer education to unlock new demand and sustain momentum.

Published on July 2, 2025

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