DEVELOPMENT: TEN YEARS ON FROM CPEC

DEVELOPMENT: TEN YEARS ON FROM CPEC

The world has heard enough of the “clash of civilisations.” However, in the case of China and Pakistan, it may be termed a “harmony of civilisations.” Both countries are heirs to 5,000-year-old civilisations: the Yellow River for China and the Indus Valley for Pakistan. Presently, both nations are bonded by multi-layered ties, spanning diplomacy, defence, economics and strategic cooperation.

Recently, a nine-member delegation of academics and scholars from Sindh visited China to engage with our counterparts as part of a scholarly exchange. There, we met Dr Wang Fan, the president of the China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing, and his team, and scholars and academics at the Pakistan Study Centres at China’s top-ranking Peking University in Beijing and Fudan University in Shanghai. We also called on Peng Xiubin, the director-general of the International Department of the Communist Party of China (IDCPC).

I had the honour of leading the Pakistani delegation. We discussed various subjects, from enhancing educational collaboration between the two countries to multiple aspects of China-Pakistan relations. This article is based on those interactions. Here, a disclaimer is in order: the views expressed may not represent China’s official policy, but reflect the impressions we gathered from our discussions with Chinese scholars.

As Pakistan and China mark a decade of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, a Pakistani scholars’ visit to China helps its delegation leader reflect on the successes, setbacks and future direction of this pivotal bilateral relationship…

MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL PARTNERSHIP

Since their inception in May 1951, Pakistan-China relations have mutually benefitted both nations. At a crucial point in history, Pakistan supported China during its period of international isolation in the initial decades of its independence. In 1964, Pakistan became the only non-communist country in the world to operate flights to China, acting as a gateway to the country from the so-called ‘free world.’ Additionally, Pakistan served as a bridge between the US and China in the 1970s, heralding a new phase of their bilateral relations.

On its part, China has consistently supported Pakistan diplomatically, even using its veto power in the UN Security Council to protect Pakistan’s vital interests. Moreover, China has played a crucial role in developing Pakistan’s defence and strategic capabilities.

One of the most successful examples of defence cooperation between the two countries has been the development in Pakistan of multi-role combat aircraft, the JF-17 Thunder, which has secured Pakistan several international purchase orders worth billions of dollars, while also bolstering its air force.

Perhaps, China’s technological assistance to Pakistan during the recent India-Pakistan tensions can be cited as the proverbial icing on the cake of their defence cooperation.

MIXED ECONOMIC RESULTS

However, the two countries’ economic cooperation has brought ‘mixed results.’

The two countries launched their first major economic cooperation programme, the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), on April 21, 2015, during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan.

The programme has four key areas: the Gwadar Port, transport infrastructure, energy and industrial cooperation. Though the programme has delivered many of its intended outcomes, there are certain areas where the performance has not been up to the mark.

For instance, though the Gwadar Port has been fully developed according to international standards, its operation is limited to just a fraction of its capacity, mainly due to the security situation and government policies.

Similarly, in the case of transport infrastructure, perhaps due to inappropriate priorities, the CPEC could not provide funding for the most crucial part of the motorway network, M-6, connecting Sukkur with Karachi, and Pakistan Railway’s ‘Main Line 1’ project, connecting Karachi with Peshawar through a modern railroad, while it financed some lower priority projects.

In the case of energy, China’s assistance through CPEC greatly helped Pakistan overcome its extreme energy deficit. However, energy generation exceeded Pakistan’s needs, which resulted in high tariffs on local electricity consumers.

Perhaps the poorest performance among all has been in the industrial cooperation component, under which a sizeable industry was to be installed in Pakistan with Chinese help. Several factors are responsible for this failure, but the most important among them has been Pakistan’s political instability.

For instance, within two years of CPEC’s launch, its most prominent proponent, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, was removed from office in 2017. A year later, the new government under Prime Minister Imran Khan, in a way, distanced itself from CPEC. Since then, the project has not achieved its previous rolling-out speed.

THE WAY FORWARD

After 10 years of CPEC, it is evident that economic cooperation with China still holds the key to Pakistan’s economic revival and rejuvenation. However, this opportunity is engulfed in a set of challenges.

The first and foremost challenge for Pakistan is its security situation. During the last few years, several Chinese nationals — as well as our soldiers, citizens and even children — have lost their lives due to terrorist attacks carried out in the name of religion and regionalism. No local or foreign investor can ever consider investing in such an environment, which we must improve.

Secondly, Pakistan must adopt an efficient and consistent industrial and economic policy. The example of the Dhabeji Special Economic Zone near Karachi can be cited to elaborate on our lethargic attitude. The concession agreement for the zone, intended to house medium-to-advanced industrial units with Chinese help, was signed in 2022. A year later, in July 2023, the groundbreaking ceremony was held. Two further years later, the zone has yet to become fully functional.

Thirdly, in the case of Gwadar Port, it may be stated here that there are many success stories worldwide, such as Dubai and Singapore, which were declared as “free ports” and attracted business worldwide. Pakistan may also consider innovative solutions to attract international maritime traffic to the Gwadar port.

Fourthly, local people need to be involved in development projects by creating economic and employment opportunities for them. Physical development should go hand in hand with social development. For instance, in the case of Gwadar, which was promised to be the second Dubai and the second Singapore, local people have been agitating for the provision of drinking water, schools and electricity. The rule of thumb worldwide is that creating a stake of the local population in development projects is the best guarantee of their success.

Fifthly, Pakistan should learn from China’s successful introduction of technology in its agriculture sector. Pakistan has abundant arable land, which can help it achieve vital food security for its people, provided it abandons its archaic farming methods and follows the Chinese example.

Sixthly, Pakistan’s over 250 million industrious and enterprising people, 64 percent of whom are under 30 years old, should be developed as a resource through education and technical and vocational training in emerging fields. This well-developed human resource would then serve as the country’s growth engine. In this regard, China’s help to Pakistan may also be valuable.

Lastly, nature has endowed Pakistan with the most privileged geographical location, which positions it as a natural conduit for international trade and commerce. Situated at the crossroads of South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, it has the potential to connect the Middle East and Africa with China and, through it, with Russia and the Central Asian states. Between these two ends, Pakistan has access to Iran, which leads to Turkiye and the rest of Europe to its west, Afghanistan to its northwest and India to its east. Pakistan’s foreign policy should be formulated to draw maximum leverage from its geographical location.

To sum up, our discussions in China culminated in a consensus that Pakistan possesses all the prerequisites for becoming a fully developed and economically prosperous nation, provided it overcomes its challenges. And in this pursuit, China would be there to help its ‘iron-clad brother’ with all possible assistance for the greater good of the two great nations.

The writer is a development consultant and a former vice-chancellor. He can be reached at drshaikhma@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, EOS, June 29th, 2025

Read More…