Nato has shelved plans to open a liaison office in Tokyo, dealing a symbolic blow to Japan鈥檚 hopes of cementing the alliance鈥檚 presence in the Indo-Pacific and exposing divisions among member states over how directly they should confront China鈥檚 rising power.
The proposal had been strongly backed by former prime minister Fumio Kishida鈥檚 government, which viewed the planned office as a step towards closer coordination with Nato and its partners in the region, including Australia, South Korea and New Zealand.
But officials confirmed on the sidelines of the alliance鈥檚 ongoing summit in The Hague that the plan had been dropped 鈥 at least for now.
Analysts say the decision is unlikely to derail growing military cooperation between Japan and key Nato members, but note that it will be perceived in Tokyo as a missed opportunity to formalise Japan鈥檚 role as a trusted partner in global security.
鈥淵es, there will be disappointment in Japan as they were very much in favour of this, but Tokyo knows there are many ways to enhance the relationship with Nato rather than through the opening of an office,鈥 said Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, associate professor at Tokyo International University鈥檚 Institute for International Strategy.
鈥淚t is not clear exactly why this decision was reached and there will be questions over whether Nato did not want an office in the Asia-Pacific region or Japan specifically,鈥 he said. 鈥淏ut things can change in the future and it would be fairly easy to resurrect the plan again.鈥
The idea for a Nato office in Tokyo was first raised in January 2023, when then Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg visited Tokyo and held talks with Kishida. At the time, Japanese officials framed the initiative as a communications hub to facilitate dialogue between Nato and its Indo鈥慞acific partners.
For Nato, the office would have underscored growing strategic alignment with Japan 鈥 the United States鈥 most prominent security ally in Asia. Tokyo signalled its seriousness by relocating its Nato mission from the Japanese embassy in Belgium to a dedicated office inside the alliance鈥檚 Brussels headquarters.
While Japan has never sought membership in Nato, it has stepped up efforts in recent years to project itself as a reliable global actor, taking part in joint exercises and security consultations, particularly as concerns mount over China鈥檚 assertiveness and North Korea鈥檚 weapons programmes.
However, some analysts believe the shelving of the Tokyo office reflects broader geopolitical recalibrations within the alliance 鈥 in particular, a shift in Washington鈥檚 strategic outlook under President Donald Trump and growing concern in European capitals about provoking Beijing.
鈥淚 think it is apparent that the present US administration has a simplistic view that Europe should focus on what is happening in Europe and Asian countries on Asia,鈥 said Robert Dujarric, co-director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.
Given Washington鈥檚 pre-eminence in the organisation, along with other members鈥 desire to avoid offending Trump out of concern that he might follow through with earlier threats to withdraw from the alliance, shelving the Tokyo office plan should not come as a surprise, he added.
Other countries had also expressed reservations, he pointed out, with both France and Germany opposed on the grounds that they wanted to avoid further antagonising China, a key trade partner.
And while the Japanese government has made no statement on the Nato decision, conservative media outlets were furious when French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his opposition back in 2023 and are likely to hold the same position now.
In July 2023, the Financial Times quoted Macron as saying, 鈥淚f 鈥 we push Nato to enlarge the spectrum and the geography, we will make a big mistake.鈥
Philippe Setton, the French ambassador to Tokyo, echoed the French leader鈥檚 position, saying, 鈥淎lthough we do not support the opening of a Tokyo office, we do believe it is important to strengthen the cooperative relationship between Nato and Japan.鈥
The conservative Sankei newspaper at the time condemned that position, declaring in an editorial, 鈥淔rance shares responsibility for peace and stability in the world. As its leader, President Macron should not cower before China.鈥
The editorial added that if France 鈥渁dopts a policy of turning a blind eye to the growing Chinese threat, it will throw the unified position of the Group of Seven industrialised nations into disarray鈥.
With questions raised over the commitment of some European nations to Ukraine in its war with Russia, there is concern in Tokyo that many governments will be even less inclined to support Taiwan should mainland China invade, leaving Japan in a precarious position.