Iran may look to China for weapons support amid conflicts with the US and Israel, but Beijing will remain cautious, considering strained economic ties with Tehran and its broader interest in balancing ties with Israel and other Western-aligned states in the region, according to a veteran Chinese expert on the Middle East.
In an exclusive interview with the South China Morning Post, Pan Guang, a Chinese scholar of Jewish and Middle East studies, said the conflict between Iran and Israel was unlikely to spiral into a broader war, but tit-for-tat retaliation could continue as Tehran pushes ahead with its nuclear programme, which is believed to persist despite US strikes.
Tensions escalated after Israel launched strikes on Iran on June 13. The US joined days later, targeting three of Iran’s nuclear facilities – marking the most significant Western military action against the Islamic Republic since 1979. Iran retaliated by attacking a US military base in Qatar and striking Israel’s strategic port city of Haifa, home to Chinese projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.
US President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire between Iran and Israel this week, which has largely held despite initial violations. However, prospects for a durable truce appear dim, as Iran’s core nuclear capabilities are believed to remain intact and Israel remains determined to neutralise what it sees as an existential threat.
Beijing, a close partner of Tehran, is being closely watched as the conflict unfolds. On Thursday, Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh joined nine of his counterparts at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s defence ministers’ meeting in Qingdao, China, where he called for a bigger Chinese role in easing the conflict.
Pan said Iran might seek Chinese weapons in light of its escalating tensions with Israel, drawing lessons from Pakistan’s recent conflict with India.
“Iran used to buy Russian weapons, but after the [India-Pakistan] conflict, it finds that Chinese weapons are not worse and may even be more advanced than Russian ones.”
In its May border clash with India, Pakistan deployed a highly integrated air combat system featuring Chinese-made fighter jets, long-range missiles and armed drones. The imported J-10C fighter jets from China reportedly shot down French-made Indian aircraft, prompting wide attention to the performance of Chinese weaponry in real combat scenarios.
Some observers have suggested that if Tehran had acquired Chinese J-10C or JF-17 Block III fighter jets, it could have shown stronger air defences during Israel’s attack. Tehran is reportedly considering acquiring JF-17 jets from Pakistan, which would require China’s approval.
Pan said China could be cautious about giving such weapons to Iran, citing potential frustration over limited progress in economic cooperation with Iran, as well as its desire to preserve ties with Israel and other Western-aligned regional players.
China has not directly sold weapons to Iran since 2005, even though the United Nations lifted its arms embargo on Tehran in 2020. Concerns over US sanctions and the geopolitical balance in the Middle East have kept Beijing wary.
But the US has accused Beijing of supplying dual-use items and technology contributing to Iran’s drone and missile capabilities, which China has denied.
In 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year strategic partnership agreement aimed at deepening cooperation across energy, trade and defence. The deal was widely viewed as Beijing’s bid to increase its influence in the region while expanding its economic footprint in the Middle East and into Europe through the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s plan for building global trade and infrastructure links.
But tangible outcomes have been limited. While some rail upgrades and energy infrastructure were planned, many projects stalled due to financial concerns linked to US sanctions and domestic criticism in Iran over perceived Chinese overreach.
Tehran has also sought more strategic autonomy by diversifying partnerships with Russia and India, which many in China were “unhappy” about, according to Pan.
“Iran did not do much under this agreement, but now it’s trying desperately to get us to do things in return,” Pan said.
Pan said that China’s main interest in the region remained economic. Beijing prefers regional stability to protect and advance its belt and road projects.
Iran’s retaliatory attack on Haifa, for example, could raise Chinese concerns about the safety of its investments.
The Bayport Terminal in Haifa and the Tel Aviv light rail system – both built by Chinese firms – are seen as flagship examples of China-Israel cooperation under the belt and road, even though Israel has never formally signed on to the initiative. Some Western countries have accused China of using the belt and road plan as a model for exporting its development strategy.
Pan said China would hope to maintain friendly relations with Israel, a significant trade partner and source of advanced technology, despite Israel’s criticism of Beijing’s position on the Gaza war.
Beijing has condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza and Iran but has offered to mediate the conflict.
“I think Israel-China relations could cool a little bit but we still have to maintain normal relations,” Pan said, noting that economic and people-to-people exchanges continued as usual.
In a meeting with the newly appointed Israeli ambassador to China Eli Belotserkovsky, assistant foreign minister Liu Bin said China was willing to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with Israel in various fields, but maintained that the use of force could not bring lasting peace and urged all parties, including Israel, to implement a ceasefire and de-escalate the tension.
Pan said that China’s embassy in Israel was organising activities this year to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, a period when China took in thousands of Jewish refugees, creating a historical memory that underpinned bilateral ties today.
On the prospects for a new nuclear deal, Pan said that it would be difficult amid rising tensions.
China continues to support a return to negotiations based on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which placed strict limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear activities, under close monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in exchange for international sanctions relief.
The US and Iran have restarted talks since Trump’s return to office, but negotiations were disrupted by Israel’s recent strikes, which Tel Aviv justified by claiming Iran was just days away from building a nuclear weapon – a charge Tehran has denied, insisting its nuclear programme is civilian.
Iran has said it will not return to talks as long as Israeli attacks continue, even as Trump announced that US and Iranian officials would meet next week. On Thursday, Iran also enacted a law halting cooperation with the IAEA.
Pan concluded that neither China nor the US had enough sway to stop Iran or Israel from pursuing their strategic ambitions.
“Neither China nor the United States wants them to fight a nuclear war,” he said. “But it’s difficult for one side to persuade Israel, and the other to persuade Iran.”