Chilling move while everyone’s distracted

Analysts have warned about how the Kremlin has leveraged chaos in the past for its own benefit. But Russia’s elites played their same old tune as missiles flew over the Middle East this week.

In the span of just a few days, what began as tit-for-tat missile exchanges between Israel and Iran escalated into what alarmists dubbed “WWIII”.

It was a solid gold opportunity for the Kremlin to divert global attention from its own misdeeds, while also posturing as a so-called peacemaker.

The United States, despite initial hesitations, was eventually drawn into the fray to assist in defending Israeli airspace and then de-escalate the situation “diplomatically” with a devastating B-2 stealth bomber assault.

But in the background, Vladimir Putin quietly worked a different angle.

Russia jumped at the opportunity to pose as the adult in the room and appear “above the fray” — all while exploiting the fog of war to reduce public focus on Ukraine and test the boundaries of US restraint.

This is the opinion of Dr Ivana Stradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who claims Russia “never misses an opportunity to exploit a crisis”.

“Russia benefits from the situation in the Middle East to divert [the] West’s attention from Ukraine,” Dr Stradner told news.com.au.

That strategy came into sharp focus as the Kremlin loudly condemned Israeli strikes, all while continuing its relentless three-and-a-half-year assault on sovereign Ukraine.

Moscow then boldly positioned itself as a mediator in the conflict, using the UN as its springboard.

“The Kremlin is trying to portray itself as a reasonable voice that wants to stop ‘WWIII’ and act as a pillar of stability in the Middle East,” Dr Stradner continued.

“Moscow is also using the UN to flex its diplomatic muscles, as Russia has a veto there.

“Ironically, Putin has also offered to mediate the conflict, but he is neither willing nor able to be an effective mediator. Putin wants to pander to President Trump to strengthen his position in negotiations on Ukraine and to portray himself as a reliable partner to Washington.”

While the deception might fall flat among those keenly aware of Russia’s advanced misinformation tactics, the Kremlin’s propaganda train chugs on, hoping to win the hearts of those undecided on who to trust in the twisted theatre of world politics.

But even more telling is what Russia didn’t do.

Despite its longstanding security relationship with Iran, which includes the presence of Russian technicians at Iranian nuclear sites, Moscow made no military moves to support Tehran directly.

Instead, as Dr Stradner points out, “Russia already abandoned its allies Armenia and Syria, and now Iran. The West should remind Putin’s allies across the world that with friends like Putin, they do not need enemies.”

Trump fires up at ‘N-word’

Whilecertain Russian assets were virtue signalling, others were jumping on the opportunity to put a fright up the West.

Former President and Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev ominously warned that Iran could just source their nuclear weapons from allies.

“A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads,” Medvedev wrote on X.

Those comments riled up Donald Trump, who accused Medvedev of playing with the “N-word” a little too haphazardly.

“Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the ‘N word’ (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran?” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“The ‘N word’ should not be treated so casually. I guess that’s why Putin’s ‘THE BOSS.’”

But Dr Stradner says it’s all hot air.

“Medvedev’s words are a textbook case of reflexive control,” she explained, referring to Russia’s longstanding strategy of seeding confusion and fear to paralyse decision-making.

“For Putin, nuclear weapons are cognitive weapons.”

Dr Stradner stressed that the Trump administration and Western powerbrokers must avoid reacting to intentionally inflammatory tactics.

“Nobody should take Medvedev’s words seriously,” she said. “It is pure propaganda.”

Russia’s nuclear chest-beating has become a predictable tool to distract, distort, and deter. It may not intend to launch missiles, but it absolutely intends to shape how others behave through the threat of escalation.

Alliances tested but not broken

While many view the Russia-Iran relationship as purely strategic, Dr Stradner sees a deeper ideological connection forming between the two nations.

“They are like friends with benefits,” she said. “They have different interests in Central Asia, but they have a mutual enemy: the United States, and that’s their bond.”

More than just co-operation on drones or ballistic missiles, the partnership reflects a shared desire to bypass Western-led institutions and promote a traditionalist, anti-liberal order.

“There is an ideological alliance defending traditionalist, religious, and anti-liberal values,” Dr Stradner noted.

While put under heavy strain this week, Russia’s alliances with anti-West nations are growing.

Russian nationalists have advocated for an “Axis of Aggressors” that includes Iran, China, and North Korea, connected through projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor, an initiative that would provide a logistics lifeline to sidestep Western trade routes.

Then there’s the BRICS alliance, consisting of major superpowers like China, India and Russia.

Mr Putin riled up the Mr Trump camp late last year at a BRICS summit in Moscow, calling for a “multipolar world order” in front of 20 leaders from powerful allied nations.

They had gathered in the Russian capital to discuss sweeping plans, including the development of a BRICS-led international payment system.

Russia has touted the platform as an attractive alternative to Western-led international organisations like the G7.

“The process of forming a multipolar world order is underway, a dynamic and irreversible process,” Mr Putin said at the official opening of the summit.

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