By CNN
Tesla is deliberately opaque about its sales numbers on specific models, so you have to squint to get a sense of just how badly the company鈥檚 unique pickup truck is performing in the real world.
But we definitely have some idea.
Here鈥檚 what we know, based on Tesla鈥檚 deliveries (a proxy for sales) released this week: The EV maker delivered about 384,000 vehicles in total, world-wide, between April and June this year 鈥 a record 13.5 percent decline from a year earlier.
Zoom in, and it gets uglier for Tesla.
Tesla doesn鈥檛 break out sales of the Cybertruck, one of its premium models that Musk says was inspired by the dystopian movie 鈥淏lade Runner.鈥 It discloses just two categories 鈥 the Model 3 and Y in one category and, in the second, 鈥渙ther models,鈥 which is almost entirely the company鈥檚 legacy Model S sedan, the Model X SUV and the Cybertruck.
The company said it delivered about 10,400 鈥渙ther鈥 models in the second quarter, which itself is a huge problem for Tesla. In the same quarter last year, Tesla sold more than 21,500 鈥渙ther鈥 models. It鈥檚 hard to think of another word for a 52 percent decline other than a collapse.
How many of those 鈥渙thers鈥 are Cybertrucks, and how many are the Model S or X? That鈥檚 not entirely clear.
But let鈥檚 look at the first three months of this year. Tesla sold about 12,900 鈥渙ther鈥 models, of which 7,100 were Cybertrucks, according to registration data from S&P Global Mobility. So a bit more than half.
It鈥檇 be safe to estimate, then, that Tesla likely sold something in the ballpark of 5,000-6,000 Cybertrucks in the second quarter if consumer trends held steady. It might even be getting marginally outsold by the F-150 Lightning and GM鈥檚 electric pickups, rivals whose sales are also falling but weren鈥檛 nearly as hyped as Musk鈥檚 brainchild.
The company didn鈥檛 respond to a request for comment.
But even in a hypothetical world where all of those 10,400 deliveries in the second quarter were Cybertrucks, Tesla would still be massively underperforming the expectations set by Musk, who told investors two years ago that he expected Tesla to be churning out 250,000 a year by 2025.
We鈥檙e halfway through the year, and Tesla has barely hit a fraction of that.
Cybertruck sales have faced a number of challenges:
Will the Cybertruck鈥檚 shortcomings sink Tesla? Probably not. But the stumble has become a reflection of the company鈥檚 broader turmoil.
The electric truck faces serious competition from the likes of Rivian, Ford and GM. Chinese rivals are eating into Tesla鈥檚 market share in key markets overseas, particularly Europe and China.
Tesla is on the verge of losing its title as the world鈥檚 largest EV maker by annual sales to Chinese automaker BYD. This week, BYD 鈥 which isn鈥檛 allowed in the US market 鈥 reported 1 million electric vehicles sold in the first half of this year, putting it far ahead of Tesla鈥檚 year-to-date total of about 721,000.
The Tesla faithful on Wall Street are still all-in on Musk, whom they see as a visionary and, perhaps more to the point, a showman who has made them rich.
Tesla鈥檚 stock (TSLA) is down about 17 percent this year, but it鈥檚 up nearly 300 percent over the last five years. For the ride-or-die bulls, it may not matter that Musk鈥檚 MAGA turn has clobbered the company鈥檚 core business of selling cars because he has convinced them that Tesla鈥檚 future lies in an AI-powered, driverless utopia.
And it鈥檚 Musk鈥檚 history of promises that have driven that meteoric share price increase, and, accordingly, Musk鈥檚 personal wealth.
But Musk鈥檚 promises and predictions routinely come up short. His Cybertruck is only the latest example.
This story has been updated from the version that was published in the Nightcap newsletter with additional context.