By Brad Ryan
Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is an extraordinary piece of legislation that brings many of the US president’s MAGA dreams to life.
It blew up his bromance with his biggest billionaire backer and could end up costing him considerable political capital.
But it means many of his most drastic domestic policies will now become the law of the land.
It will change the US — and the world — in some ways that are obvious, and probably in others that are unforeseeable.
Which of those ways matters most is open for debate.
But there are three areas where we can be sure to see some things dramatically transform.
US no longer the land of hope
America’s been home to millions of undocumented migrants for decades.
About 8 million are estimated to be in the US workforce, and industries like agriculture and construction have become dependent on them.
Under some administrations, their presence has been unofficially tolerated. A lot of big cities granted them “sanctuary” protections to prevent their deportation.
Some of these “illegal” workers are even given special “ITIN” numbers so they can file taxes. And in 2022 they paid an estimated $US97 billion ($147 billion). (It’s worth noting more than a third of that money went to social welfare programs they couldn’t access.)
So the US has long been referred to as the “land of hope” for people from abroad seeking better lives.
But the legislation delivers on Trump’s promise to strip a lot of that hope away.
The incentives to come here are being removed, and people here without legal status are being encouraged to self-deport or risk harsh consequences.
(In what could become an interesting exception, Trump has been talking about lifelines for unauthorised migrants who work on farms, if the farmers vouch for them.)
The bill will inject more than $US100 billion to hire enforcement agents, continue work on the Mexican border wall, and double the size of detention facilities.
The bill also puts in place a bunch of new barriers for refugees or asylum seekers hoping to stay in the US.
Immigrants who are found eligible for humanitarian protection will be hit with a $US1,000 fee to get it. Seeking asylum will yield bills of at least $US100. Applying for a work permit will cost $US550 at a minimum.
Many Americans applaud these moves. The White House says the new fees will help support what’s become an expensive system.
And Trump’s crackdown remains popular with many Americans after big spikes in unauthorised border crossings in the Biden era created a situation that many saw as unsustainable.
Winding back the fight against climate change
For environmentalists, the final version of the bill isn’t quite as bad as it could have been.
They know Trump’s no fan of renewable energy. Solar farms, he says, are “ugly as hell”. And wind turbines have been “destroying the place”.
An earlier version of the bill reflected his disdain for renewables with a proposed new tax on solar and wind projects.
That triggered forecasts of the demise of those industries, until a small group of Republican senators forced the tax’s removal.
But many experts still see the bill as another big retreat from the fight to contain climate change by the US, the world’s second-largest producer of greenhouse gases (after China).
While the proposed new tax is dead, so are clean energy tax credits — for renewable energy, electric vehicles and efficient homes — that were brought in by former president Joe Biden.
The priority moves back to oil and gas. The bill will make it easier to lease public land for drilling and mining, and cut the royalties oil and gas producers pay the government.
Multiple studies project the bill’s implementation will cause greenhouse gas emissions to rocket in relation to what they would have been.
Princeton University modelling projects the bill will increase US greenhouse gas emissions by 470 million tonnes per year by 2035 (compared to where they would have been without the bill).
That’s an increase of more greenhouse gas than Australia produces in a year in total. And that’s before you factor in other measures Trump is implementing to wind back climate and clean-energy policies.
Trump’s oil-thirsty energy policy often boils down to a three-word slogan: “Drill, baby, drill.” The bill will help power the drilling.
Widening the gap between haves and have-nots
Most credible independent analysis points to a widening of the vast gap between America’s haves and have-nots as a result of the bill.
Its centrepiece is what Trump heralds as the largest tax cut in American history.
Many analysts point out the income tax cuts disproportionately favour the wealthy, but they’ve been in place since 2017, meaning people won’t really notice a change.
But making those cuts permanent will cost $US4.5 trillion over a decade.
So, despite some of the spin to the contrary, that revenue loss will be partially covered by cuts to Medicaid — the government program that provides health insurance for low-income Americans.
The White House frames this as a rooting out of waste and fraud, and a refocusing on providing services for the neediest Americans the program was designed for.
Congress’s budget office estimates about 12 million Americans will lose their health coverage, saving the government $US1 trillion.
Millions of Americans are also expected to lose the help of the national food stamp program that helps keep poorer people fed.
The Trump administration is sensitive to the criticism this bill unfairly benefits the rich. And there are measures that mean some people on the poorer end of the social spectrum may be better off.
For example, workers in low-paying service jobs, who rely on tips to make a living, will appreciate that tips are now exempt from tax.
There are also tax credits for seniors and parents — and if you’re a fisherman or whaling captain in Alaska, there are tax benefits for you too, inserted into the bill to win over that state’s holdout Republican senator.
But overall, most experts say the socio-economic scales will tip further in the favour of richer Americans.
For those with less, the US already lacks the welfare benefits of places like Australia, where things like Medicare and Centrelink are sometimes taken for granted.
But the protections offered by America’s few safety nets will now be rolled back further.