By News18
India鈥檚 lifeline 鈥 the monsoon is becoming increasingly erratic. Traditionally viewed as a seasonal constant, the southwest monsoon is now showing clear signs of variability in onset, distribution, and withdrawal, with profound implications for agriculture, water security, and climate planning.
As Vishwas Chitale, Senior Programme Lead, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), notes, 鈥淐EEW research shows that India鈥檚 monsoon is becoming more variable not just in its onset and duration but also in how rainfall is distributed across regions and months.鈥
Recent data underscores this shift. Over the last decade, 55% of India鈥檚 tehsils experienced over a 10% increase in southwest monsoon rainfall. Conversely, 11% of tehsils saw a decline, especially in critical agricultural zones like the Indo-Gangetic plains, northeastern states, and the Himalayan belt. Alarmingly, 87% of these declines occurred in June and July鈥攖he crucial sowing window for kharif crops like paddy, maize, and pulses.
Compounding this, 64% of Indian tehsils have reported more heavy rainfall days, and nearly half have seen a 10% or more increase in October rainfall, indicating a delayed monsoon withdrawal. These changes not only disrupt sowing and harvesting cycles but also put added stress on water management, flood control systems, and rural livelihoods.
Chitale warns that reactive adaptation will not be enough. 鈥淲e need localised climate risk assessments, updated crop calendars, and resilient water and infrastructure systems that can respond to both increases and reductions in rainfall,鈥 he says. Investing in early warning systems and climate-intelligent infrastructure is no longer optional but essential.
India鈥檚 agricultural strategy must pivot towards resilience and precision planning, ensuring farmers are not blindsided by unpredictable rains. With climate change intensifying, the monsoon鈥檚 mood swings are no longer anomalies鈥攖hey鈥檙e the new norm. Preparing for this means embracing data, decentralised planning, and a systemic rethink of how we farm, store water, and build for the future.
The monsoon may still arrive each year but it鈥檚 no longer arriving the same way. And that changes everything.