By Hugh Cameron
With only days remaining before the 90-day pause on President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs expires, the administration has yet to unveil even a fraction of the trade deals that were promised at the outset.Members of his cabinet initially aimed to secure “90 deals in 90 days,” but are now poised to fall short of this goal, having only secured one bona fide deal, a single set of preliminary agreements, while hinting that a handful more are on their way.UK Only Country Trump Has Made a Deal With So FarOn April 2, the president put markets into a tailspin and the United States’ trading partners on notice by announcing country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs on nations accused of taking advantage of America to the tune of billions of dollars. When these were paused only a week later, the administration stated that countries would now have the opportunity to approach the U.S. with more favorable terms and strike deals to permanently reduce these high duties.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said early on that “more than 75” nations had approached the administration to this end, later stating that negotiations would focus on “18 important trading partners.”But so far, the United Kingdom is the only country to cement a deal with the U.S.—heralded as “historic” by both leaders—under which its goods will be subject to a 10 percent tariff when entering the U.S., with 100,000 British cars per year tariffed at this rate rather than the 25 percent duty on cars announced by Trump in April.The U.S. and China have also agreed on preliminary trade terms and a framework for further negotiations. While details are scarce, Bessent said that this will likely mean easier access to Chinese magnets and rare earth minerals.India Deal Close, Japan Deal Fading AwayIndia is also close to striking a deal that could bring down the 26-percent duties imposed on it in April, according to officials from both countries. In a recent interview with Newsweek, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar expressed optimism that an agreement could soon be reached. President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Tuesday that, should India grant American firms greater access to its markets, the country would secure a deal “for much less tariffs.”However, far from new, mutually advantageous trading terms, snags in negotiations have also seen certain countries facing even harsher trading restrictions than before the pause. After criticizing Japan’s reluctance to accept U.S. rice exports, which Tokyo considers a threat to its agricultural sector, Trump said he was considering imposing a tariff of “30 percent of 35 percent” on Japan’s imports if a deal is not struck before next week’s deadline, well above the original, 24-percent reciprocal rate.”I’m not sure we’re going to make a deal. I doubt it,” Trump said of Japan on Tuesday, while calling the country “very tough” and “very spoiled.”Trump Acknowledges Difficulty in Doing DealsRyan Young, a senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, told Newsweek that the conspicuous lack of new deals may stem from an international guessing game, and countries’ inability to know what the Trump administration is seeking from negotiations, whether support for U.S. manufacturing, action on drug trafficking, or simply a reduction in bilateral trade deficits.”With that kind of policy incoherence, trading partners might feel that their best option is to wait out Trump’s term and put up with a few years of their companies exporting less to Americans,” Young said. “Then they can negotiate with a more stable future administration.”With dozens of agreements still in their early stages and the deadline fast approaching, the administration has also begun providing differing views on both what will be achieved by July 9 and how trade policy will evolve beyond this date.As these questions began to emerge in late April, Trump told Time magazine he had made “200 deals,” without clarifying who they were with. However, last week the president acknowledged the difficulty of cementing deals with so many countries in such a short time frame, when such negotiations typically span months or years.”You know, we have 200 countries—you could say 200 countries plus,” Trump told reporters on June 27. “We can’t do that. So at a certain point, over the next week and a half or so, or maybe before, we’re going to send out a letter. We talked to many of the countries, and we’re just going to tell them what they have to pay to do business in the United States.”A day earlier, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt described the July 9 deadline as “not critical,” adding that the president could extend this if he wishes, or simply “provide these countries with a deal if they refuse to make us one by the deadline.”Leavitt said this would involve Trump “pick[ing] a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is advantageous for the United States.””I’m going to send letters. That’s the end of the trade deal,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday, when asked what would happen before the 90 days were up. “Dear Mr. Japan, here’s the story: You’re going to pay a 25 percent tariff on your cars.”In May, Bessent said that countries which failed to reach a deal with the U.S. would see tariffs revert to their Liberation Day rates, telling CNN, “If you do not negotiate in good faith, you will ratchet back up to your April 2 level.” However, earlier this month, Bessent told the House Ways and Means Committee that those countries that are negotiating in “good faith” would likely be able to continue negotiations past the July 9 deadline without their tariff rates reverting to those announced on Liberation Day.Deadline Likely to Be Pushed BackBoth Bessent and Trump have framed the impending deadline as not set in stone. The president told reporters last week that “We can do whatever we want. We could extend it, we could make it shorter.”In an interview with Fox News, Bessent said that the majority of America’s critical trade deals would be inked by Labor Day, September 1.Young believes the deadline will be pushed back for the majority of trading partners for two main reasons.”One, negotiating trade agreements are taking longer than the administration expected. Policy is complicated, and you can’t just bulldoze through it,” he told Newsweek, comparing the hyperbolic promises of dozens of trade deals to those regarding DOGE’s cost-cutting abilities, or Trump’s campaign pledge of a 24-hour solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.”Two, financial markets will revolt if they expect Trump to go through with his full Liberation Day tariffs,” he said.For those countries that can secure a deal, either before next Monday or beyond this point, Young believes these will likely resemble that announced with the U.K., a 10-percent baseline rate, with a few specific exemptions.”The bottom line result will be higher tariffs than before Trump took office,” he added.