By Fatima Kemelova Saulet Tanirbergen
AKTAU 鈥 Generative artificial intelligence has quickly become a part of our everyday life, replacing traditional search engines for many people. Need a new meal plan? You type into an AI chat-bot. Need help with an essay? ChatGPT is your friend.
A lot of attention has been devoted to how the introduction of AI will affect the employment landscape and technology landscape. Yet, there鈥檚 been little discussion of the implications around the supply of energy for AI to continue to scale.
The bottom line is that the convenience of AI chat-bots comes at a large environmental cost. A single large language model (LLM) query 鈥 from systems such as ChatGPT, Gemini or Claude 鈥 uses about 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, compared to 0.3 watt-hours for a traditional internet search, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Training just one LLM can emit around 300,000 kilograms of carbon dioxide 鈥 roughly five times the lifetime emissions of an average car, or the equivalent of 125 round-trip flights between New York and Beijing.
As a consequence of the rise of AI, the demand for electricity is set to more than double in the next five years, potentially matching Japan鈥檚 current level of electricity consumption, according to recent reports by the International Energy Agency (IEA). This is problematic since most electricity continues to be powered by fossil fuels. As of 2022, 62% of the electricity generated in Kazakhstan came from coal.
But that does not have to be the case. In Northern Europe, for example, Google reports that over 90% of the electricity powering its data centers comes from renewable sources. In contrast, that figure drops to below 20% in the Asia-Pacific region. One key to Northern Europe鈥檚 success in integrating renewable energy into its electric grid is Nord Pool 鈥 an interconnected electricity market serving Nordic and Baltic countries. It allows energy to flow across borders in real time, improving supply and lowering costs.
鈥淚f in one country there鈥檚 more wind, the prices drop, and it allows this country to export electricity at lower prices to neighboring countries within one day,鈥 said Anna Lobanova of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
According to ESCAP, power system interconnectivity between countries can help integrate renewable energy more effectively, smoothing out fluctuations in solar and wind generation. For instance, solar output varies throughout the day, and wind patterns shift from region to region. Connecting the energy systems of nearby countries in the region can help distribute renewable power more consistently and curb these fluctuations.
The potential that power system connectivity can bring to Central Asia is enormous. ESCAP, jointly with the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), has been working on promoting an integrated power system in Central Asia for the last few years. They argue that Central Asian nations can leverage leftover Soviet-era infrastructure to create a unified electricity trading market. This, in turn, would allow Central Asian countries to have access to a broader range of energy resources, including renewable sources.
This is in alignment with recent efforts by governments in the region to move away from being reliant on fossil fuels. Kazakhstan is aiming to have half of its energy mix come from renewables by 2050. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan set a goal to have a quarter of its energy come from renewables by 2030.
But, beyond that, power connectivity in Central Asia could pave the way towards a future where electricity supply is more stable and more green. If the region hopes to position itself as a leader in AI, unifying electrical grids might be the solution that gets us there.
The author is Saulet Tanirbergen, a communications intern at the United Nations ESCAP in Thailand. Saulet graduated from the University College London and The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times.