By Tass
The formal trigger for the new mass protest was Vucic’s failure to comply by the end of June 28 with an ultimatum issued by students, who continue to demand an investigation into the November 2024 tragedy at the Novi Sad railway station and the dissolution of parliament. After the main protest came to a close, radicals wearing masks emerged among the disgruntled demonstrators, setting off flares and attacking the police with sticks and stones. In response, police used force and other crowd control measures, which the opposition used as evidence that the protest had taken a radical turn.
The latest protests were notably more aggressive with signs of increased pressure from demonstrators, deliberate provocations, and confrontations with security forces being clearly evident, and ultimately materializing, Program Manager at the Russian International Affairs Council Milan Lazovic told the newspaper.
According to the expert, the trend toward radicalization in Serbian protests is deeply concerning. If future demonstrations follow a similar violent trajectory, it could be a sign of an impending “color revolution” in Serbia. This process is fluid, with tactics being adapted to the evolving domestic political situation. For instance, under the pretext of fighting corruption, young people are being actively mobilized, while a “Russian card” is provocatively played, with some suggesting Vucic is betraying Russia. There is also intense speculation surrounding Kosovo, with claims that Vucic is ceding ground there as well and may soon formally recognize the region’s independence.
Recently, protesters have appeared somewhat unorganized, lacking any clear objective, meaning there is currently no immediate threat to the government, Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University Anastasia Maleshevich said. Nonetheless, in the long term, public discontent will only grow, as the protest movement is rooted in substantial grievances and will not dissipate due to temporary setbacks, the expert asserted.
Kommersant: US, China come to terms on easing trade war, pave way for further negotiations
The trade deal reached between the United States and China following several rounds of negotiations does not signal a de-escalation of tensions between the two powers, but it does open the door for further discussions in a more mutually acceptable environment, Kommersant writes. According to official statements, the agreement enshrines a new baseline for tariff levels and likely entails the lifting of export restrictions on rare earth metals to the US and on ethane exports to China. The agreement itself will not be made public, and analysts remain cautious in assessing its specifics or the scale of mutual concessions. Despite a flurry of negotiations with numerous trade partners, Washington has not yet finalized deals with most of them. The US appears willing to wait for more favorable terms, thanks to its comparatively lower dependence on these countries.
According to Trump’s statements, Washington’s tariffs on Chinese goods will now be set at 55%, while Beijing’s duties on American imports will stand at 10%. During the “tariff race” in April, mutual tariffs had soared to prohibitive levels – 145% on the US side and 125% on the Chinese side. “The announced 55% US rate still requires clarification, analysts believe Trump may have factored in existing tariffs dating back to his first term into this new figure,” the newspaper writes.
According to Kommersant, given that neither side has disclosed the full details of the agreement, analysts are reluctant to say who the better end of the deal. Judging by select official comments, the agreement appears to be a temporary measure designed to facilitate the continuation of negotiations wihout exposing either side to immediate risks from a further decline in trade volume. Both the US and China have acknowledged the significant economic damage inflicted when the trade war was at its peak.
President Trump has also indicated that Washington is working on several other trade agreements, including an imminent deal with New Delhi. According to Trump, the US aims to achieve the complete removal of trade barriers hindering American exports to India, and in return is prepared to reduce its own tariffs to a minimum. However, due to the general vagueness of most of Trump’s remarks, it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of such a deal materializing.
Kommersant: US eases nuclear-related sanctions on Hungary, opening door for work with Russia on Paks II
Hungary has successfully secured a relaxation of US sanctions that had hindered the expansion of its Paks Nuclear Power Plant. Licenses for transactions related to nuclear energy have been granted, including to Gazprombank, which remains under US sanctions but was slated to participate in financing the 12.5 bln euro construction project. Experts interviewed by Kommersant believe that the project’s implementation will boost Rosatom’s reputation as a reliable international partner.
Russia and Hungary signed agreements in late 2014 for the construction of two new units based on VVER-1200 nuclear reactors at the existing Paks Nuclear Power Plant. The project is expected to more than double the plant’s capacity to 4.4 GW. According to Rosatom, construction was originally scheduled to begin in 2024, but progress on the project had stalled.
Rosatom confirmed that the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has decided to exclude certain activities of Russian banks and insurance companies from financial sanctions, specifically for projects related to nuclear energy, including Paks II. “This will allow us to move forward with the implementation of the project with our Hungarian partners under the current contract,” the company said.
Sergey Rozhenko, Head of Energy Analytics at Kept, emphasized that the Paks II project is vital for Hungary’s energy sector, as it will enable the country to produce up to 50% of its electricity independently of external suppliers. It is also significant for affirming Rosatom’s standing as a dependable partner, and for demonstrating that Russia consistently fulfills its obligations, which is a particularly important quality in the nuclear industry.
“The US returning to a pragmatic approach is a welcome development. However, most sanctions remain in place, along with the informal self-censorship practiced by many companies. This has already spurred the development of alternative supply and financial chains, a process that now appears likely to be brought to completion,” the expert noted.
Izvestia: Russian ruble continues to rally amid geopolitical tensions, but analysts forecast depreciation by year-end
At the beginning of the year, many considered the ruble to be overvalued. However, by the end of the first half of the year, the Russian currency not only failed to weaken but continued to appreciate. Currently, the interbank exchange rate for the US dollar stands at approximately 78.5 rubles, while the yuan is trading at 10.94 rubles on the Moscow Exchange. Market fluctuations have not impeded the ruble’s Q2 rally, as it steadily approached the peaks of 2022 and even pre-pandemic levels. This trend has had a positive effect on inflation but a less favorable impact on the competitiveness of Russian exporters and the federal budget, Izvestia writes.
The ruble’s strengthening in Q2 2025 occurred independently of external factors or macroeconomic performance. Despite the suspension of ceasefire discussions on Ukraine, oil prices remaining below last year’s levels, and clear signs of an economic slowdown, the ruble maintained its upward trajectory. Against the yuan, the ruble gained 5% over the three-month period – a similar increase was observed relative to the US dollar.
Chief Economist at Gazprombank Pavel Biryukov told Izvestia, “In our view, the current supportive factors, tight monetary policy and subdued demand for foreign currency, may begin to weaken in the second half of the year. This could lead the ruble to revert toward more sustainable levels. We project the ruble to reach 91-93 per dollar (12.5-12.7 per yuan) by the end of the third quarter, and to move into the range of 96-99 per dollar (13.4-13.7 per yuan) by year-end.”
Dmitry Vishnevsky, analyst at Tsifra Broker, also believes that the ruble is headed for depreciation in his take to the newspaper. “By the end of Q3 2025, we expect the dollar-to-ruble exchange rate to be in the 78-80 range, close to current levels, due to strong foreign currency sales by exporters (up to 90% of revenues) and the Central Bank’s high key interest rate (20%). However, by year-end, the ruble may weaken to 100-105 per dollar, driven by declining oil prices, rising imports, and potential monetary policy easing. We also foresee ruble depreciation against the yuan, with a forecast of 13-13.5 by year-end.”
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