Nigeria could find itself at a critical juncture as reports emerge of a potential expansion of U.S. travel restrictions that could fundamental-ly reshape bilateral relations between Nigeria and its long-standing Western ally. The USA is considering restricting entry to citizens of an additional 36 countries, in what would be a significant expansion of the travel ban, with Nigeria prominently featured on this latest potential list.
This development represents far more than a routine policy adjustment. It signals a poten-tial seismic shift in USA and Africa relations that threatens to unravel decades of diplomatic cooperation and economic partnership. Un-doubtedly, the implications extend beyond visa restrictions to encompass trade relations, investment flows and Nigeria’s strategic posi-tioning in an increasingly multipolar world.
The timing of this consideration is no doubt particularly striking given Nigeria’s current economic vulnerabilities. Foreign investors had pulled out ₦420.37 billion from the Nigeri-an equities market in the first quarter of 2025, representing a 251% year-on-year increase in outflows compared to the ₦119.81 billion re-corded in Q1 2024, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). This massive capital flight already signals inves-tors’ nervousness about Nigeria’s economic stability and the prospect of travel restrictions could exacerbate these concerns significantly.
For the first quarter of 2025, the NGX re-ported ₦2.232 trillion in total transactions, of which ₦814.05 billion (36.47%) came from foreign investors and ₦1.41798 trillion (63.53%) from domestic participants. This contrasts sharply with first quarter 2024 performance, highlighting the volatility in foreign investors’ sentiment towards Nigerian equities.
Despite these equity market trends, broader foreign exchange data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) presents a more nuanced picture. Nigeria recorded $15.2 billion in net foreign exchange inflows in first quarter of 2025, with total FX inflows rising to $28.92 billion, while outflows stood at $13.72 billion. However, the CBN reported that gross exter-nal reserves declined in the first quarter of 2025 due to seasonal factors and foreign debt interest payments, even though it anticipates a “steady uptick” throughout the year.
Nigeria’s experience with previous U.S. trav-el restrictions provides a sobering preview of what lies ahead. In January 2020, Nigeria was added to the Trump administration’s travel ban through Presidential Proclamation 9983, which expanded restrictions to additional countries including Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Ni-geria, Sudan and Tanzania, though it limited application to immigrants and did not restrict entry by non-immigrants. The previous restric-tions already demonstrated the policy’s capac-ity to disrupt people-to-people connections and economic inter-relationships.
Specifically, the health sector stands par-ticularly vulnerable to further expanded restrictions. Nigeria’s medical system relies heavily on training partnerships with USA institutions, pharmaceutical supply chains that depend on seamless movement of per-sonnel and expertise and public health pro-grams supported by agencies like USAID and PEPFAR, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. These collaborations had been instrumental in addressing Nigeria’s health-care challenges, from HIV/AIDS prevention to maternal mortality reduction. Disruption of these partnerships could regrettably set back public health gains by years and compromise Nigeria’s ability to respond to future health emergencies.
Education represents another critical pres-sure point. Nigerian students constitute one of the largest African contingents in USA uni-versities, contributing billions of dollars to the American economy, while building the human capital foundation for Nigeria’s development. A visa freeze would not only limit academic op-portunities for thousands of Nigerian students but also suppress vital knowledge exchange programmes that benefit both nations. The ripple effects would extend to institutional partnerships between Nigerian and Ameri-can universities, research collaborations and the long-term development of Nigeria’s profes-sional workforce in critical sectors including technology, medicine and engineering.
The energy sector, traditionally a corner-stone of America-Nigeria economic relations, faces particular uncertainty. Major American companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil have been significant operators in Nigeria’s upstream sector for many years. Diplomatic tensions and travel restrictions could compli-cate projects oversight, technical cooperation and new investment decisions at a time when Nigeria is working to maximize oil revenues and modernize its energy infrastructure. The potential for reduced American investments in Nigeria’s energy sector could have far-reaching implications for government revenues and an-ticipated foreign exchange earnings. Nigeria’s telecommunications sector, which has been valued at approxi-mately $80 billion based on cumu-lative foreign direct investment and market growth over the past two decades, could also face significant headwinds. The industry reached this valuation by mid-2020, reflecting its rapid expansion since the liber-alization of the sector in 2001, and has attracted over $80 billion in FDI between 2001 and 2021, making it one of the most dynamic and invest-ment-attractive industries in Nigeria. American tech companies and infra-structure firms have been important partners in Nigeria’s digital develop-ment and travel restrictions could slow investment flows and technical cooperation in this critical sector that has become a pillar of Nigeria’s eco-nomic diversification efforts.
Perhaps most immediately con-cerning are the implications for Nigeria’s foreign exchange position. Nigeria’s diaspora remittances have shown significant growth, with the Central Bank of Nigeria reporting a 63.7% increase in international mon-ey transfer operator inflows during the first nine months of 2024, rising to $3.82 billion from $2.33 billion in the corresponding period of 2023. In fact, according to the World Bank, Nigeria received $19.5 billion in diaspora re-mittances in 2023, representing 35% of sub-Saharan Africa’s total remit-tance inflows, though this marked a 2.9% year-on-year decline from pre-vious levels.
Undoubtedly, United States rep-resents a substantial source of these remittance flows, given the large Ni-gerian diaspora population in Amer-ica. Should Nigeria be included in an expanded travel ban, the anticipated impacts could be severe. Conservative estimates suggest that even a 15-20% reduction in America sourced remit-tances could result in annual losses of $3-4 billion, considering that a significant portion of Nigeria’s total remittance inflows originates from America. This would represent a major shock to Nigeria’s foreign ex-change earnings at a time when the country is working to stabilize its cur-rency and boost foreign reserves. The CBN’s ambitious target of achieving $1 billion monthly remittance in-flows could become significantly more challenging to attain, if access restrictions limit the movement of Nigerian diaspora communities.
This potential expansion of the U.S. travel ban could lead to significant diplomatic fallout, particularly with countries such as Nigeria and Gha-na, which are critical partners for the U.S. in Africa. This observation under-scores the broader strategic implica-tions of the proposed policy beyond its immediate economic impacts.
Interestingly, the continental re-sponse has been notably coordinated, reflecting a maturing African diplo-matic posture. The African Union has expressed concerns about the discrim-inatory nature of expanded travel re-strictions, while individual African countries have begun considering reciprocal measures. This collective response demonstrates a growing will-ingness among African states to push back against policies they perceive as unfair or discriminatory.
The challenge has accelerated Nigeria’s strategic diversification efforts, a trend that was already underway but has gained urgency. China remains a critical partner through the Belt and Road Initiative, supporting infrastructure develop-ment in rail, ports and digital con-nectivity. Chinese investment has proven less conditional on political considerations and more focused on mutual economic benefit, making it an attractive alternative for Nigerian policymakers.
Also European Union engagement through the Global Gateway strategy offers another avenue for partner-ship, with investments in green en-ergy, education and trade platforms that align with Nigeria’s development priorities. European partners have indeed demonstrated greater sensi-tivity to African development needs and more willingness to engage in genuine partnership arrangements.
The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) represents perhaps the most promising long-term avenue for reducing Nigeria’s vulner-ability to external policy shocks. With access to a continental market worth $3.4 trillion, Nigeria could build more resilient regional supply chains, re-duce export dependency on traditional Western markets and strengthen its manufacturing base through expand-ed intra-African trade.
Yet the path forward is not with-out challenges. Nigeria’s economy remains heavily dependent on oil exports and diversification efforts, while promising, require sustained commitment and significant invest-ments. The country’s infrastructure limitations, regulatory complexities and security challenges in certain regions continue to pose obstacles to rapid economic development.
The proposed travel restrictions ultimately represent a test of Nige-ria’s strategic autonomy and adapt-ability. The country’s response to this challenge will determine whether it emerges more resilient and self-reli-ant or finds itself increasingly mar-ginalized in global affairs. The stakes extend beyond bilateral America-Ni-geria relations to encompass Nige-ria’s role as a regional leader and its ability to chart an independent course in international affairs.
For the United States, the policy consideration raises questions about the long-term sustainability of its Africa strategy. Nigeria represents America’s largest trading partner in sub-Saharan Africa and a critical ally in regional security efforts. Alienat-ing such a strategic partner through broad-brush policy measures could undermine America’s influence across the continent and create op-portunities for competitors to deepen their engagements.
Undoubtedly, the international community will be watching closely to see whether diplomacy and mutual respect could prevail over unilateral actions. For Nigeria, the outcome of this potential policy shift will serve as a crucial test of its growing influence and ability to navigate an increasing-ly complex global environment.
The choices made in the com-ing months will surely reverberate through Nigeria’s economy, society and international relations for years to come, potentially defining a new pathway in the country’s relationship with the West and its broader engage-ment with the global community.
Ade Adesokan is a public affairs com-mentator