As the US gets more entangled in the Israel-Iran conflict, China is likely to be keeping a close watch and picking up some clues on American interventionism in regional disputes.
According to one China watcher, Beijing may be a 鈥渓ong-term beneficiary鈥 of the American retreat from stable leadership, as Washington鈥檚 strikes on Iran have revealed it to be an uncertain and unpredictable global power.
More significantly, the conflict has revealed Washington鈥檚 reluctance to engage in a prolonged war, offering the Chinese leadership clues on how the Trump administration might approach other flashpoints, including Taiwan.
The US carried out air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last weekend in an operation Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth called a 鈥渞esounding success鈥 that obliterated Iran鈥檚 nuclear capabilities. It followed an intense exchange of fire between Israel and Iran that started on June 13 when Israel launched surprise air attacks on Iranian military and nuclear facilities.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire had been reached in the 鈥12-day war鈥 between the traditional adversaries.
However, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday downplayed the impact of the US strikes, claiming that Tehran had delivered a 鈥渟lap to America鈥檚 face鈥 by striking a US airbase in Qatar over the weekend.
Beijing has sharply criticised both the United States and Israel, with China鈥檚 ambassador to the United Nations, Fu Cong, accusing Washington of violating Iranian sovereignty and worsening tensions in the Middle East. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in the second call with his Iranian counterpart since the conflict erupted, said on Tuesday that China supported Iran鈥檚 efforts to safeguard its national sovereignty and security.
Brian Wong, assistant professor in philosophy at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), said China would have 鈥渟truggled significantly鈥 in the short to medium term if crude prices had risen due to the conflict, given its reliance on Iranian oil.
鈥淵et in the long term, China would feel rather glad 鈥 and at the very least takes partial solace in the fact that 鈥 the US of today is by no means the US of yesteryear,鈥 Wong said in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Tianjin last week.
鈥淎nd that had been a country that鈥檚 capable of truly leveraging both diplomatic and also coercive tactics in driving forward an economic agenda in a region like the Middle East 鈥 which could have systematically excluded China鈥檚 rising role to play in it.鈥
Wong, who is also a fellow at HKU鈥檚 Centre on Contemporary China and the World, said past administrations had been able to position the US as a stable and reliable provider of security to the region that would also act broadly in line with international expectations.
But Trump鈥檚 behaviour and actions involving Iran had 鈥渃ompletely undone that sort of uncertainty and predictability鈥, he said.
鈥淕iven the unpredictability here, I would say that China is a long-term beneficiary from the American retreat from stable and consistent leadership.鈥
While Trump鈥檚 attack on Iran showed that he was not hesitant to deploy force in regional conflicts, Wong said it also reflected his reluctance to fight a long and protracted war. But that did not mean China would see it as a chance to act to further its own interests.
鈥淐hina views this as a sign of the limits to American interventionism under Trump, that there are limits to what Trump is willing to invest and commit to hot zones,鈥 he said.
鈥淗e鈥檚 unwilling to put troops on the ground, unwilling to get drawn out into protracted warfare, and unable to stick to a consistent line that鈥檚 going to last for any more than two to three days.
鈥淭hese are all messages and cues that Beijing is picking up, but I don鈥檛 think this therefore means that Beijing feels emboldened to make a sudden move on 鈥榙isputed鈥 or 鈥榗ontested鈥 territories and that is because Beijing has its own timeline for what it perceives to be peaceful unification [with Taiwan].鈥
Monica Toft, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, noted that Trump had campaigned on being a peacemaker and not starting any new wars.
If China viewed him through this lens, it could make the argument that Trump was unlikely to use force on any conflicts, and that Israel 鈥 which counts the US as its biggest ally 鈥 was a 鈥渟pecial case鈥 because of its 鈥渟pecial relationship鈥 with Washington.
鈥淚t would be quite dangerous to speculate how [US actions on Iran were] going to impact the US reaction should something happen over Taiwan, Hong Kong or the Philippines,鈥 she said in a separate interview on the WEF margins.
Top Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping, have on multiple occasions said Beijing is ready to play a 鈥渃onstructive role鈥 in the Middle East conflict.
But Wong said that, despite the unpredictability of the Trump administration, Beijing was 鈥渘ot ready and is not able to step up as a genuine peace broker and a mediator in the region鈥.
According to Wong, China does not have the knowledge and understanding of the cultural idiosyncrasies and intricacies of conflicts in the Middle East. 鈥淏eijing doesn鈥檛 want to get its hands dirty,鈥 he added.
鈥淚t feels that the moment it assumes responsibilities to mediate and the moment that mediation falls through, its credibility would get irrevocably damaged. This is not something risk-averse foreign policy decision makers in Beijing want to see today.鈥
Toft said it would be helpful for China to lean on parties it was closer to in resolving global conflicts, whether it was Israel and Iran or the Ukraine war.
鈥淸Beijing] can鈥檛 abandon the international community because it鈥檚 dependent on it,鈥 she said.
鈥淚t鈥檚 in China鈥檚 interest to stay engaged, to try to help to alleviate and sort of depress these cycles of violence.
鈥淚n reading China鈥檚 history and understanding China鈥檚 foreign policy, China just doesn鈥檛 want crises. It wants a stable trading environment so that it can keep its economy growing 鈥 Not that any state welcomes a crisis, but if ever there鈥檚 a state that wants stability, it鈥檚 China.鈥