Over 50% of sea turtle habitats are expected to disappear by 2050 due to climate change

Over 50% of sea turtle habitats are expected to disappear by 2050 due to climate change

As countries rush to meet the 30×30 target of the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, a new study on sea turtles raises questions about the efficacy of marine protected areas and their ability to protect marine biodiversity. The 30×30 target mandates that 30 per cent of marine areas are protected by 2030. Merely 23 per cent of the world鈥檚 sea turtle hotspots lie within these Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). According to the Marine Protection Atlas, over eight per cent of the ocean is designated as MPAs, but only about three per cent are effectively managed. The study published in Science Advances on June 25, 2025, reveals that climate change is pushing sea turtles away from their traditional habitats toward cooler waters. This shift is taking them outside protected areas and into busy shipping zones.Many of these new habitats, such as the North Sea, Mediterranean, East China Sea, and even waters near the Gal谩pagos Islands, are high-risk zones with heavy ship traffic. This is laying them open to the threat of vessel strikes, which is a leading cause of turtle deaths. In the future, the situation is likely to worsen as global shipping is also projected to grow by 1,200 per cent by 2050.Researchers Edouard Duquesne and Denis Fournier from the Department of Organismal Biology, Universit茅 Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium, studied 27,703 sea turtle sightings and more than 1 billion ship locations to find out how climate change can shift turtle movements and increase their chances of being hit by ships. In an email response to Down to Earth, Duquesne and Fournier said there鈥檚 a need to move beyond fixed protected areas and adopt flexible, real-time conservation methods that can keep up with changing ocean conditions.The analysis covered all seven species of sea turtles found globally, and this is one of the most comprehensive studies of its kind and also clearly supports what was emphasised at the Third UN Ocean Conference (UNOC3) in June 2025, which called for urgent action to protect marine biodiversity and the need for a new generation of MPAs. The researchers used three climate scenarios which are part of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a model developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to explore how the world might change under different levels of emissions and development. SSP1-2.6 shows a future where countries take strong steps to fight climate change, SSP2-4.5 represents a middle path with moderate action, and SSP5-8.5 shows a future with high pollution and continued heavy use of fossil fuels. These scenarios help show how sea turtle habitats might shift depending on how much the climate changes.Their findings show that over 50 per cent of current sea turtle hotspots could vanish by mid-century, even under the more optimistic scenarios. In the worst-case climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), sea turtles like the Caretta caretta and Dermochelys coriacea could lose up to 67 per cent of their current habitat. Conversely, the Chelonia mydas may expand its range into cooler waters.Fournier cited real-time conservation models like WhaleWatch on the US West Coast, which uses satellite and ocean data to guide vessel speed regulations based on whale locations, along with California鈥檚 Blue Whales and Blue Skies initiative, where non-profits and shipping companies collaborate to voluntarily reduce vessel speeds in whale habitats which helps in reducing both collisions and emissions.Incentive programmes at ports in Los Angeles, Oakland, and Vancouver reward such efforts. 鈥淭hough these haven鈥檛 been widely used for sea turtles yet, our study shows they could be adapted for turtle conservation,鈥 Duquesne added.These initiatives demonstrate that adaptive, data-driven conservation is both feasible and effective, especially in mitigating risks like vessel strikes. Importantly, our work contributes to this growing dynamic conservation framework 鈥 one that moves beyond static MPAs and proposes adaptive, real-time strategies that can respond to fast-changing ocean conditions. As species shift habitats under climate stress, conservation approaches must evolve accordingly, the team said. To both protect turtles and meet the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework鈥檚 30×30 goal, they recommend the following:Expanding MPA coverage in future turtle hotspots, especially within national Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).Designing dynamic, climate-informed MPAs that can adapt spatially and temporally based on emerging species distributions.Coupling MPAs with targeted shipping regulations, such as speed reductions in high-risk areas, to mitigate vessel strike risks.At a time when the global community is rallying around ocean protection, our study delivers concrete scientific evidence to support this shift鈥攈ighlighting the need for climate-smart, adaptive protections that follow turtles where they go, not just where they have been. By integrating high-resolution species models with real-world shipping data, we offer a roadmap for building truly forward-looking marine conservation strategies, they said.

Read More…