BBC Wales went to St Davids, Pembrokeshire, to check the lay of the land.
It’s the first minister’s home patch. She hopes to return as one of the Senedd members for the new seat of Ceredigion Penfro in next year’s elections.
Window cleaner Pete Baird, a supporter of Reform UK, isn’t impressed.
“They’ve been in power for 26 years and they’ve done nothing,” he said.
“The national health service is worse here than what it is in England.”
I bump into former Labour councillor Vic Dennis who said Morgan was a “tremendous asset” and a politician who understands the county’s rural economy.
This is a part of the world that pushed out the Conservatives and elected a Labour MP last summer.
So why is it that so soon after that landslide in the general election, Labour is now contemplating such a difficult election to the Senedd?
Part of the reason is the way Nigel Farage’s Reform has won support in some traditional Labour heartlands.
But delve into the data and you find an awful lot of Labour voters threatening to go to other parties on the left, especially Plaid Cymru.
Polling expert Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said there has always been a tendency for some voters to switch support back and fore between Labour and Plaid Cymru.
“What has changed is the size of that group now – it’s bigger than ever,” he said.
Another big change is linked to the increase in the number of Members of the Senedd from 60 to 96 at next May’s election.
Those members will be elected under a partly-proportional system which is “likely to hurt the Labour Party,” said Larner.